Hail in Oregon, July 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
TODAY ON A SLOWER PACE THAN YESTERDAY SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
LATER IN THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THIS EVENING. DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH LITTLE OR NO INDICATION OF MARINE PUSH INTO EAST SIDE
ZONES YET. ONLY LOCATION WITH MODERATE WINDS WILL BE DLS. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FOR THU WITH ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME
MORE STABLE BY FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPS THU/FRI A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID RANGE MODELS HAVE
VERGED TOWARDS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TO THE DEPTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL EXPECT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVER THE PACNW...AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
WALLOWA AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST AND INTO CENTRAL OREGON ARE POSSIBLE IF THE A STRONG
TROUGH MOVES IN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL
LIMIT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. 90

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR RANGE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. TIMING OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT A SPECIFIC TAF SITE WILL BE DIFFICULT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE EITHER CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND/OR VCTS AT
AFFECTED TAF SITES. THE MARINE PUSH WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AIR MASS
AROUND KDLS STABLE WHILE PRODUCING WEST WINDS OF AROUND 25 KTS
THROUGH 6/0600 UTC. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR
TO MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS OR VICINITY THUNDER THURSDAY. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  55  86 /  30  10  10  10
ALW  63  85  58  87 /  20  10  10  10
PSC  62  89  57  89 /  20  10  10   0
YKM  58  84  51  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  61  86  56  89 /  20  10  10   0
ELN  60  76  54  82 /  20  10  10   0
RDM  48  78  41  86 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  60  81  52  86 /  30  30  30  10
5J0  54  84  50  88 /  30  30  30  10
DLS  61  78  56  85 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
94/90/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT WED JUL 5 2006

WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-061215-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-
NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
1025 AM PDT WED JUL 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     CENTRAL OREGON

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
     FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF
     THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER
     AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON.  HEAVY RAIN...WINDS GUSTS TO 55 MPH...AND UP TO DIME
SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA.  IN THESE
AREAS...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
     FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
     COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE
AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST OREGON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.