Lightning Strike in Oregon, August 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY...
AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA AT 210 PM PDT SHOWED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL IN CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. THE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW HAS VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH IS PRODUCING DYNAMIC LIFT. A POCKET OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL STEEPEN TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES AND THUS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE BUOYANT AND THUS UNSTABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE RAIN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL OREGON INTO NORTHEAST OREGON.

THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND THEN EXIT THE REGION SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS POISED JUST
OFFSHORE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES AND IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST AS WELL.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
IDAHO AND MONTANA. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO COLD AIR CARRIED IN BY THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD SATURDAY AND THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WARM UP WILL NOT BE TOO EXTREME WITH THE
COLUMBIA BASIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY ENSURING CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND ALONG ALL TWEB ROUTES. MVFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KRDM AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTES 366 AND 368
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY 6Z WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING THROUGH 9Z ALONG TWEB ROUTE 366. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS UP TO
35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR CENTRAL/NE
OREGON AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON (FIRE ZONES 631 THROUGH
638 AND 675) THROUGH 10 PM PDT TONIGHT FOR FREQUENT
LIGHTNING/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY FUELS. HAVE A CONCERN
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT STORMS COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OREGON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NOT EXTEND
THE RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME...BUT SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS EVENING...BUT WITH RHS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...WILL REMAIN UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA. ANOTHER
LIGHTNING EVENT COULD OCCUR ON THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH...
BUT STRENGTH NOT AS GREAT AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM...THUS WILL HOLD OFF
ON A WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  86  59  85 /  30   0  10  10
ALW  62  88  62  86 /  30   0  10  10
PSC  59  90  63  88 /  20   0   0  10
YKM  59  86  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
HRI  59  89  62  87 /  30   0  10  10
ELN  59  83  60  83 /  10   0  10  20
RDM  48  86  52  82 /  20   0  10  20
LGD  56  88  55  84 /  30  10  10  20
5J0  53  90  52  85 /  30  10  10  20
DLS  60  87  62  84 /  10   0  10  10

&&

OR...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FREQUENT/ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS
     UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES:
     632-633-634-635-638.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FREQUENT/ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS
     UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES: 631-633-675.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
99/83/83/89

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT TUE AUG 8 2006

CORRECTED SPOTTER INFORMATION

ORZ041-WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ042>044-049-050-501>506-091215-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
450 PM PDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
     COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

RED FLAG WARNING
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN
     DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN
     DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST OREGON UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING
INCLUDING UMATILLA...UNION...GRANT...MORROW AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT PDXWCNPDT (WMO HEADER
WWUS66 KPDT).

WE HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE RED
FLAG WARNING PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT PDXRFWPDT (WMO HEADER WWUS86
KPDT).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON INCLUDING THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY DRY) ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED IN
UMATILLA...MORROW...GRANT...UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FROM THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
251 PM PDT TUE AUG 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             5 SSE MOUNT VERNON      44.35N 119.07W
08/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY HAIL SHOWER COVERING GROUND. HAIL SIZE IS LESS THAN
            NICKEL. SOME RAIN AND LITTLE WIND.

0205 PM     HAIL             9 NW SENECA             44.24N 119.09W
08/08/2006  M1.00 INCH       GRANT              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STARTED OUT WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL...THEN OBSERVER
            MEASURED LARGEST PIECE AT 15/16 OF AN INCH. ALSO RECEIVED
            0.25 INCH RAIN IN 10 MINUTES.

0240 PM     HAIL             10 NNE IZEE             44.18N 119.27W
08/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY HAIL SHOWER COVERING GROUND. LARGEST IS PENNY
            SIZED.

&&

AA