Hail in Oregon, August 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 PM PDT MON AUG 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST NORTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO AND CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK AROUND 30000 FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING IN CENTRAL OREGON DURING THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM
SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON.
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
DESCHUTES...JEFFERSON...CROOK...WHEELER AND GRANT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON MAY
HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS...THE GRAND RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST OREGON. THE WAVE THEN MOVE THROUGH
EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER DISTURBANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN WARMING SATURDAY AND BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW WITH FAIR AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUING.  PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCASIONALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KRDM AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
TWEB ROUTES 366 AND 368. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND ON ALL TWEB
ROUTES AFTER 01Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY 06Z AT KRDM AND
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTES 366 AND 368. AT OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS AND ON REMAINING TWEB ROUTE SECTIONS THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS NEAR KRDM AND ON THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTES 366 AND 368. AFTER 12Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND ON ALL TWEB
ROUTES.  PERRY

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL OREGON
(FIRE ZONES 610/611/630) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING/SCT TSTMS WITH DRY FUELS. AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST (ZONES 631>638) HAVE RED FLAG WARNINGS UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT FOR THE ABOVE CONDITIONS. WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING
ON TUESDAY...HAVE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR ZONES 630/632>638
FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS THRU TUESDAY AFTN. THE STORMS WILL CARRY
LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY ACROSS NE OREGON...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING
SOME PRECIP BY THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THE FREQUENCY OF THE LIGHTNING
WILL OUTWEIGH HOW MUCH PRECIP IS GENERATED FROM THE STORMS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE MORE BREEZY AREAS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL
WIND/RH CONDITIONS.  ALLEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  87  59  88 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  68  87  62  90 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  64  89  58  92 /  20  20  10   0
YKM  62  86  58  88 /  20  20  10   0
HRI  65  88  58  91 /  20  20  10   0
ELN  62  83  58  85 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  56  84  48  88 /  40  30  10   0
LGD  61  85  55  89 /  30  30  30  10
5J0  58  87  52  91 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  65  84  60  89 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
     610-611-630.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES
     631-632-633-634-635-638.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR FIRE ZONES 630-632-633-634-635-638.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES
     631-633.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR FIRE ZONE 633.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
99/83/83/89

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1155 AM PDT MON AUG 7 2006

UPDATED DAY ONE AND DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN DISCUSSIONS TO FOCUS ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND TO COVER FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

ORZ041-WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ042>044-049-050-501>506-081215-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
1155 AM PDT MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

RED FLAG WARNING
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
     COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
     COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BECOMING STRONG OR
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL OREGON: DESCHUTES...JEFFERSON...CROOK...WHEELER...
WASCO...SHERMAN...GRANT. REFER TO SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PDXSPSPDT (WMO HEADER WWUS86 KPDT) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
INITIALLY...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTAIN MORE RAIN AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS TONIGHT. SEVERAL RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ARE IN EFFECT. REFER TO PRODUCT
PDXFWFPDT (WMO HEADER WWUS86 KPDT) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY
     FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, GRANDE RONDE
     VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE
     MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM
     COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF
     THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN
     GILLIAM COUNTIES

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF
     THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN
     GILLIAM COUNTIES

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.
AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. REFER TO PRODUCT PDXFWFPDT (WMO HEADER
WWUS86 KPDT) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OREGON:
DESCHUTES...JEFFERSON...CROOK... WHEELER...WASCO...SHERMAN...GRANT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE COUNTIES MAY BE SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES...IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GILLIAM AND MORROW COUNTIES...IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY AND IN WALLOWA COUNTY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.