Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, May 29 to 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
CATCH UP ON SOME RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WEATHER. FIRST FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THOUGH THE USUAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...THERE IS
ALSO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AS PROFILERS SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW LINING
UP PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. TEMP/DEWPOINTS SPREADS ARE LARGE...SO
INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOLS AND PROPAGATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL RUN INTO INCREASING RESISTANCE FROM THE
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF
CONVERGENCE CAN SUSTAIN THE STORM COMPLEX. NAM AND PARALLEL NAM BOTH
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A TRULY TROPICAL
AIRMASS IS NUDGING INTO THE STATE. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTAINS A
FEW CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CIRCULATIONS OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHICH MAY
SKIRT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. SURFACE OUTFLOW
IN THE FORT WORTH AREA WAS ALSO PLOWING NORTH AND WEST INTO A WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS...SO WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE TOWARD
ARDMORE AND ADA THIS EVENING. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL/WIND IS
POSSIBLE...MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIRD AREA OF INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON THE CAPROCK WEST OF
ALTUS/QUANAH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THIS HAS LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL GREATLY COMPLICATE
THE TUESDAY FORECAST...BUT MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE
TROPICAL AIR THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE FOCUSED
POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED...WHERE THINKING FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS STILL HOLDS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOMEWHAT
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THEN A WARM UP BEGINNING FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  86  68  84 /  40  20  30  40
HOBART OK         68  87  67  84 /  40  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  85 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           66  84  63  82 /  20  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     69  86  67  83 /  60  30  30  30
DURANT OK         73  86  69  85 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BURKE/02

PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

OKZ004-005-009-010-292130-
WOODS OK-HARPER OK-WOODWARD OK-ELLIS OK-
345 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS...HARPER...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM CAMP HOUSTON TO
WOODWARD TO 9 MILES WEST OF HARMON AT 345 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BURKE