Hail in Oklahoma, March 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SCATTERED STORMS MOVING TOWARD EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES GENERALLY -1 TO -2.  IN ADDTION...
THE CAP INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG CAP.  THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SR-HELICITY ARE FORCING A SUPERCELL STORM
MODE AND THE CELLS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THEIR MESOCYCLONE DYNAMICS.

WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS SOME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INCREASES THE HODOGRAPHS.

THE CELL MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST PAWNEE COUNTY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE
MESOCYCLONE ORGANIZATION AND GIVEN THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL SR-HELICITY
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM A TORNADO WARNING BECAME REQUIRED.

THE POTENTAIL FOR A STONG TORNADO OR TWO DOES EXIST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES FURTHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT WITH A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
        RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
        RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=56.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE. THE DRY
LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN
100 AND 200 PM WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASING.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LINEAR AND
WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...WITH A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
SHIFTING EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MILES AN HOUR...AND NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MILES AN HOUR OR
GREATER. PLEASE REFER TO THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE STRONG WINDS...COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE REGION TODAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND AGAIN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...UNLESS SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
LATER FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN BY SUNDAY...AND ALSO FOR THE CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

OKZ057-301600-
CRAIG OK-
936 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG

AT 936 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CENTRAILIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID
CORNERS...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

OKZ071-073-301900-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
1207 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH AND PITTSBURG

AT 1207 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF ARPELAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...
CHECOTAH...HANNA...VERNON...RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM...ONAPA...
PIERCE...HITCHITA...RENTIESVILLE...MCALESTER...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...HAYWOOD...BACHE...ALDERSON...KREBS...ARPELAR...
SCIPIO...BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON...CROWDER...INDIANOLA AND CANADIAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

OKZ070-071-073>075-301930-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
101 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH...HASKELL...PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 101 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CHECOTAH TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAILEYVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PUMPKIN CENTER...KEEFETON...VETERANS COLONY...
STIGLER...LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...
WILBURTON...YANUSH...HIGGINS...BENGAL...DAMON...GOWEN...PANOLA...RED
OAK...EUFAULA...CHECOTAH...ONAPA...RENTIESVILLE...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON...BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON...
QUINTON...BRIARTOWN...PORUM...WARNER...OKTAHA...BRAGGS AND WEBBERS
FALLS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
142 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

OKZ054-059-302000-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
142 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 140 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAINOLA TO 45 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WESTERN OSAGE
COUNTY AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS
BETWEEN 145 PM AND 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 40 TO 45 MILES AN HOUR FROM
GRADIENT WINDS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.