Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED A COLD POOL OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SE INTO PORTIONS OF OSAGE COUNTY.
OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OK...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
REMAINS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NOT SURE ABOUT THE FATE OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.
HAVE OPTED TO LOWER LIKELY POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NE OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006)

DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS NOW YIELDING TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON SUN. EXPECT TEMPS
TO REACH MID-UPPER 90S BY 5 PM AND SET
OFF ANOTHER ROUND TSRA. MORE ORGANIZED
TSRA  FOLLOWS AS WEAK IMPULSE WHICH IS
NOW BREWING THUNDER IN KANSAS..ROTATES
THROUGH.  PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES
NEAR 2 IN.THRESHOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS MARGINALLY HIGHER
POP/PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.

CHANCE POP TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WHEN HOT H50 MB SOUTHWEST RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. PLUS 20 > PLUS 24 H850 TEMP GOOD
FOR AROUND 100 IN URBAN AREAS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.   HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK. KEPT GRID POPS
AT 14 IN THE EXTENDED TO AVOID ENDLESS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                 GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 8
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFETRNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DOWNBURST WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A WILBURTON TO
FORT SMITH LINE. FURTHER NORTH...ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS RESULTING
IN LESS INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED
IN MANY AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH IN KANSAS ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BUT THE DURATION OF ANY SEVERE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BRIEF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS.

HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS...WITH THIS COMBINATION LIKELY
PROVIDING DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXCESSIVE HEAT PLANS SHOULD BE READIED FOR ACTIVATION BY THE
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

OKZ072-120030-
SEQUOYAH OK-
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

AT 643 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MC KEY...VIAN...GORE...BRUSHY...
MARBLE CITY AND BOX.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

OKZ055-056-120245-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
905 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON AND WESTERN NOWATA

AT 905 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COPAN TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE TO 25 MILES
WEST OF BARTLESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE OUTFLOW WINDS
INCLUDE...WANN...BARTLESVILLE...OCHELATA...DEWEY AND COPAN.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.