Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, April 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...ONE TO THE
EAST THAT APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED THUS IS WEAKENING. A
SECOND AREA THAT IS MUCH STRONGER IS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 700-500MB THICKNESS/HEIGHTS SUPPORT CURRENT
MOVEMENT TO THE E-NE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT MOVING MORE SOUTH
OF EAST AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
WILL BASE FIRST PERIOD POPS OFF OF RADAR TRENDS FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL QPF HAS REALLY BEEN ALL OVER
THE PLACE THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH CONFIDENCE WANING EVEN FURTHER
WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF 00Z NAM QPF FIELDS. THAT SAID...WILL
FAVOR HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE IN PROXIMITY OF THE BEST
UPPER FORCING. VERY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED AMS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAKENING OF THE CAP WITH TIME AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE WILL WARRANT CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS BY THIS EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT...WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPS EXPECTED AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OF TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
SUFFICIENT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST REGARDING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. GFS STILL FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER THEN THE ECMWF
CONCERNING INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM.
PREVIOUS GFS RUNS HINTED AT RAIN CHANCES GETTING PUSHED SOUTH FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY)...BUT THE LATEST RUN
SUGGESTS A DRY SUNDAY FOR ALL OF FA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR SE OK.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH LOW POPS OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LOW MODEL
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  57  64  43 /  30  60  10  10
FSM   87  64  67  47 /  20  60  40  10
MLC   87  63  66  45 /  20  50  30  10
BVO   85  52  62  40 /  40  60  10  10
FYV   80  58  63  40 /  50  70  30  10
BYV   79  59  61  41 /  50  70  40  10
MKO   86  58  65  43 /  20  50  20  10
MIO   83  55  62  39 /  50  60  20  10
F10   87  59  66  44 /  20  50  20  10
HHW   86  66  68  47 /  20  30  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 15
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET....THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
MORE STABLE AIR AND A CONTINUED DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR UNDER A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE CAPE VALUES TO 2000 TO 3000
J/KG BY EARLY EVENING. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT HOURS. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL RESTRICT CONVECTION UNTIL IT
WEAKENS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

OKZ054>056-241100-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
509 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NOWATA

AT 509 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
WEST OF BARTLESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...
LENAPAH...OKESA...BARTLESVILLE AND DEWEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

OKZ057-058-063-241100-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
519 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA...CRAIG AND DELAWARE

AT 519 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITE OAK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...
NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...VINITA...WHITE OAK...PYRAMID CORNERS
AND BLUEJACKET.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.