Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
143 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  FIRST IS LINE OF TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER ERN OH.  THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AXIS OF
INSTABILITY.  STRONGEST STORMS THIS AREA SHOULD BE JUST S OF LERI
WHERE LAKE/LAND INTERACTION CREATING SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND PROFILE
NEAR THE SURFACE.  THESE STORMS SHOULD BE E OF KERI AND KYNG NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING ACROSS IN AND
MI.  THESE STORMS ALSO IN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND ARE BEING
HELPED ALONG BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WAVE ALOFT.  EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYERS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SO HAIL WILL BE A THREAT
TODAY.  WILL TRY TO TIME THESE STORMS ACROSS NRN OH LATE THIS AFT
WITH SHORT TEMPO GROUPS.  ONCE THEY MOVE THRU...WX BEHIND SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET.  COULD SEE SUM FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUNDAY)...
TUES EVG/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WEAKENING ACRS NERN OHIO AND NWRN
PA AT THIS TIME.  DP MSTR REMAINS ACRS OH/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WITH VORT MOVING INTO THE AREA FM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ISOLD
NEW CELLS HAVE DVLPD BTWN MFD AND CMH. WITH VORT AXIS ALG A
KCLE-KCMH LN AT 12Z WOULD XPC BEST CHC FOR MORNING SHWRS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THAT LINE.  FOR THE RMNDR OF TDA THINKING FWC MOS POPS ARE
ON THE LOW SIDE AND WILL TREND FCST CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS OF
HIGH CHC.  IN SHORT UPPR TROF TO OUR WEST DIGS TOWARD THE AREA
COOLING TEMPS ALF AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER A WARM MOIST AMS.
ALSO VORT MAX OVR WI SHOWING UP IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FCST
BY THE NAM TO DROP INTO THE AREA.  SCT TSTM WORDING FOR THE AFTN
SEEMS REASONABLE.  HAVE ALSO LOOKED AT 500-300MB DIFF VORT ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE FIELDS WHICH BOTH SUPPORT LIFT ACRS THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVG/ERY TNGT SO WL CONT WITH CRNT FCST OF 40
POPS EAST AND 30 POPS WEST. THURSDAY THE TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA
FM WEST TO EAST.  GFS SHOWS AMS MOST UNSTBL IN THE MORNING WITH -4-6
LIS ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY MORE
STBL NUMBERS IN THE AREA ALG WITH DRIER AIR MOVG IN FM THE WEST.
AGAIN SEE THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN EAST.  ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL
DRY UP ERY THURSDAY NIGHT AS STG NVA MOVES ACRS THE AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROF.  WL CONT DRY ON FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE ACRS THE AREA.  GFS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH DP MSTR RETURNING
FM THE SW WITH A WRMFNT ON SATURDAY VS THE NAM. AT THIS TIME WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR THE AFTN SAT TO 40 AND CONT SAT NIGHT AND GO WITH
50 ON SUNDAY WITH CDFNT DROPS BACK ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING W-NW FLOW THRU THE WKND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY WHICH WILL BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CAN OCCUR. AN ECWMF AND MREF BLEND WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER THE SRN
GREAT LAKES THIS WKND WITH +20C 850MB AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND A BOUNDARY/FRONT STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL OH. THIS WOULD
AT LEAST SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
REGION WITH HVY RAINFALL AND SVR WX POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SPC
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK HAS SEVERE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NEARBY. WL THEREFORE
KEEP CHC POPS THRU THE WKND...AND NOT GET INTO MUCH
TIMING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WX. THE GFS
SUGGESTS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN DAYS 6 AND 7 COMPARED TO THE
ECWMF. THE ENSEMBLE FCSTS SUGGEST A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR THE FRONT TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH MON/TUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY NW
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE A DRY FCST
FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUE DRY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. HOWEVER...IF THE
GFS TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER ECMWF SOLN...POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WKND /ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY/...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR MON AND TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
613 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-291015-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
613 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

IN ADDITION SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LEZ142>149-162>169-291015-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
613 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.