Hail in Ohio, January 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EDGING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 06Z AT ALL
SITES AND THEN ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
12Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACK
SIDE OF LOW...SO HAVE GONE WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. RLG

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 409 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE BARRELED SURFACE LOW WITH ONE LOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE OTHER NEAR KSTL. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
CONVECTION INTO WESTERN INDIANA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING THE SOUTHERN SFC LOW
AND TAKING IT ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
THE GFS BEING DEEPER WITH SFC LOW AND THEN TAKING IT FARTHER
NORTH UP THE COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE TO THE ACTUAL FORECAST.

BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE BETTER HAVE SOME SFC AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. HOWEVER
AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST THE INSTABILITY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS WILL ONLY GO WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC HAS SE HALF OF FA IN A SLGT RISK. NOT REAL HOT ON THE RISK.
WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY THINK THE THREAT IS SOUTH OF FA. IF
THREAT EVER MATERIALIZES...THEN LOW TOP CONVECTION MAY MIX DOWN
SOME STRONG WINDS.

ONCE WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW TONIGHT...THEN WIND AND SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW WILL BECOME THE NEXT ISSUE. SINCE GFS IS PREFERRED
WILL GO WITH STRONG WIND WORDING. WILL KEEP BOTH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW (SUSTAINED 31 MPH AND GUSTS
46 MPH). AS FOR THE SNOW IT LOOKS THE THE TIMING OF COLDER AIR IN
AND A WEAKER MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SIGNATURE OVER FORECAST AREAS
HELP TO KEEP AMOUNTS AN INCH OR LESS IN THE WEST. IN THE EAST
WILL NOT MENTION ANY ACCUMULATION BECAUSE OF A LATER SWITCH.

MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. WILL ALSO BUMP UP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FOR THOUGHTS OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ALL PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN. CHANGE OVER DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 430 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006)

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU EXTENDED.  SFC HI PRES RIDGE MOVING
THRU REGION WILL ENSURE A DRY ENDING TO WEEKEND. DEEP SFC LO EJECTS
INTO CNTRL PLAINS SUN EVNG AND INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VLY BY MON
NIGHT.  INITIAL SPLIT STREAM FLO WILL PHASE...DEEPENING UPR TROF AND
ATTENDANT SFC LO AS IT TRACKS N/E THRU INTO REGION TUES.  00Z/12Z
GFS BOTH INDCG SFC LO TO LIFT NORTH AND OCCLUDE ACRS MICHIGAN BY 00Z
WED...WHILE ECMWF TAKES SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC LO FURTHER SOUTH THRU OH
VLY.  LO LV CONV MAXIMIZES LATE MON NIGHT INTO DAY ON TUES AS 55KT
850 LLJ LIFTS ACRS REGION IN TANDEM WITH STRONG 140KT UPR JET.
PWATS CLIMB ABV 1 INCH...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SOAKER FOR
FCST AREA.   ALL MODELS INDCG A DVLPG SECONDARY WAVE ALONG FRNTL
BNDRY ACRS SE CONUS TUES EVNG...LIFTING INTO MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND BY
WED AFTN.  12Z GFS IS FURTHEST WEST AND DEEPEST WITH SECONDARY LO
TRACKING ALONG APPALACHIAN MTNS...WHILE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLN INDCG
FURTHER EAST TRACK UP EAST COAST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS CONSENSUS
WITH PCPN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WED...POSSIBLY AS A RA/SN MIX OR
ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO FCST AREA.  SFC HI PRES THEN
RETURNS FOR THURS.  TEMPS WILL INITIALLY START AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
SUN...WITH ABV NORM TEMPS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FOR MON/TUES.  TEMPS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SECOND HALF OF WORK WEEK.

RYAN

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
527 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ053>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-141030-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
527 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG SPRING TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA AND
OHIO TODAY ON ITS WAY TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-141030-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-
527 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO...
MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

 TIPTON