Hail and Damaging Wind in Ohio, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
208 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM(TDY-SUN)...
SFC LOW PRES NOW NEAR KERI AND CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE E.
TRAILING FRONT NOW SLOWLY MOVING S AS SEEN BY LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR S AS KMFD BY 21Z AND BE WELL S
OF THE AREA BY 00Z.  LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND FNT WILL PUT
AN END TO THE TSRA THREAT.  FOR THE TIME BEING ONLY FAR SRN 1/3 TO
1/2 OF ZONES HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO SEE T ACTIVITY AND THAT
THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVE.  LATEST NAM...RUC AND
GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF FRONT AND LOW 1ST PERIOD.  VERY
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT BUT VERY STRONG LLVL
INVERSION TO SET UP FOR FIRST 2/3 OF THE NIGHT.  COULD BE SUM SPITS
OR SHRA THRU THE EARLY AM HOURS.  WAS EARLIER CONCERNED ABOUT
POSSIBLE FZDZ OVERNIGHT BUT NOW DRIER AIR COMES BEFORE TEMPS GET
COLD ENUF.  850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND NEG 6 MIDDAY TOMORROW AND
THEN START TO MODERATE.  COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT SC TOMORROW AM BUT
DO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME M/SUNNY DURING THE AFT AS SFC TO 700 MB
MEAN RH FALLS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.  WILL BE CHILLY ALONG S SHORE OF
LERI TOMORROW WITH NLY FLOW OFF LAKE.  SUN WILL GET OFF TO A COOL
START WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK.  HI TEMPS SUN WILL
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE
TDA.  SO..FOR THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY
QUIET EXTENDED PD WITH SPRING LIKE WX ONCE WE GET PAST THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRES WILL DIVE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS TOMORROW AND THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.  HI
SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFT AND EVE AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVE.  SO AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MON
AND TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER 60S.  BY EARLY
WED...THERE WILL BE ENUF WAA TO POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU
REGION.  LINGERING SHRA IN THE E ON THU IN THE CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.  RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS REGION THU NIGHT AND WL BACK IN WAA
FLOW BY END OF PD.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE WARM ADVECTION HAS NOW BEGUN TO
RETREAT SOUTHWARD. AS EACH HOUR GOES BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DIMINISH OUR CHANCE OF TSTMS AND SVR WX FOR EXTREME NRN
OHIO....FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF CLE...JUST A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS
NEEDED TO GET THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR FOR WX WATCH THIS AFTN POSSIBLY FOR OUR SRN CWA.
AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGT CHC OF MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TNGT. SOME LGT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CIGS IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDING. EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF
VFR CONDS EARLY THIS AFTN VCNTY MFD LOOK FOR IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDS
TO DOMINATE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...BC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
547 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-081100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
547 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30 THAT
RUNS THROUGH MANSFIELD AND WOOSTER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUDEMAN