Hail and Damaging Wind in Ohio, April 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
740 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW LOWER MI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEAR THE
IN/IL STATE BORDER.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO BY THIS
EVENING.

NOT ALOT OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW.  EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF AKRON.  PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE GET.  MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO IN THE DRY SLOT BUT CIRRUS
BLOW OFF FROM TSRA OVER KY/TN NOW SPREADING OVER NE OH AND COULD ACT
AS INSULATION.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COVERING NW INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO TOL AREA BY
MID MORNING.  GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA WITH CIGS 015-020.
SHRA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 BY LATE MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A LOT TO COVER WITH LITTLE TIME. TSTORMS HAVE JUST ABOUT DIED OUT AS
THEY HAVE PUSHED INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WARM FRONT IS ESSENTIALLY
BECOMING OCCLUDED AS SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS INDIANA AND W KY ARE DROPPING A BIT. DRY SLOT WILL
BE CROSSING AREA THIS MORN AND SITUATION NOT AS RIPE FOR SEVERE WX
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY AS TIMING A BIT OFF WITH DRY SLOT IN
THE MORNING. NONETHELESS STRONG SHORT WAVE STILL TO ROTATE ACROSS
AREA TODAY WITH DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AGAIN AS COLD FRONT BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND W PA. ALL
MODELS SHOW BETTER UVV DVLPG BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AS WELL AS LI -4 BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME E OH/NW PA AND WILL MENTION CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS YTOWN/WARREN/ASHTABULA AND NW PA. LESS WIND SHEAR
TODAY SO MAINLY A WIND THREAT IN DRY SLOT. ELSEWEHRE WIND WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN DRY SLOT AND INCREASING CAA ALOFT TODAY.
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THOUGH AS
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEED
40 KNOTS ALOFT INTERSECTS WITH MIXED LAYER MAINLY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SFC DELTA THETA E DECREASES TODAY SO EXPECT PEAK
WINDS TO TOP OUT AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF
TIMING WERE MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO ISSUE
WIND ADVISORY AND WILL NOT HAVE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

COLDER TONIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. SHOWERS
SHOULD END BEFORE COLD ENOUGH FOR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
THE SNOW BELT BUT NO ACCUM YET. BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATER TUESDAY/TUE NGT AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
ACROSS EASTERN LAKES AND CROSSES E LAKE ERIE. SNOW HAS A TENDENCY TO
MELT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN APRIL ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY SO SOME ACCUM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE SNOWBELT. LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT WILL COME WITH HURON FETCH AND MAINLY SEEMS A THREAT FOR
INLAND NW PA COUNTIES AND W NY. NOT SURE THERE WONT BE 6 INCHES OR A
LITTLE MORE (WARNING CRITERIA) FOR INLAND NW PA TUE NGT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT IF SHORT WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING FARTHER EAST THEN TOO
MUCH DRY AIR AND HURON FETCH MAY STAY ACROSS W NY. WITH UNCERTAINTY
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SOME
SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH BREEZY AND CHILLY N CENTRAL AND NW OH TUESDAY.

WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS TODAY SINCE STARTING OUT SO
WARM AND MENTION FALLING TEMPS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND NW OH WHERE WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS WILL COME IN QUICKER. WILL CUT GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS A
CATEGORY OR SO MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND IN THE SNOWBELT WED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WAA WILL DVLP QUICKLY IN RETURN FLOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH FARTHER
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. DID
NOT CHANGE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND THUR AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AS THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE DIFFERENT VIEWS ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN TO A WAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING.
BOTH MODELS HAVE A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW THROUGH OHIO AND OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE
OPTED TO FOLLOW THE 00Z EUROPEAN GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION BUT
GIVEN ABUNDANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THESE 2 MODELS AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE MREF MEMBERS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 40 POP
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT SHOULD BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO
COOL OFF DRAMATICALLY AND ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...GALE WARNING LERI.
PA...GALE WARNING LERI.

&&

SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/LEINS
AVIATION...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1023 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-041200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1023 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTERSTATE 71 BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS FRONT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SNOWBELT EAST
OF CLEVELAND ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...MAINLY OVER INLAND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
IF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

LEINS