Funnel Cloud in North Dakota, August 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MANITOBA THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITH GOOD VORTICITY
ENERGY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. CLUSTER/LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PROPOSED EXTENDING THE WATCH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UPGRADING TO A TORNADO WATCH. THE UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALL EVENING. FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WEST OF THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES. MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA
TONIGHT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE.

EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE - SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE 12Z GFS INDICATES WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST VORT ENERGY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...ALTHOUGH
IT SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-250930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
422 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006 /322 AM MDT THU AUG 24 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...THEN END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             3 W UNDERWOOD           47.45N 101.21W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED

&&

VJENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
231 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     UNDERWOOD               47.45N 101.14W
08/24/2006  E65 MPH          MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORTED WINDS WERE ONGOING AT 222 PM CDT

&&

VJENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             4 W STEELE              46.86N 100.00W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL WAS CONTINUING AT 300 PM CDT. WINDS WERE REPORTED AT
            45 MPH. REPORTED BY NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY PATROL.

&&

VJENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             STEELE                  46.86N 99.92W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL WAS ONGOING AT 318 PM CDT.

&&

VJENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 S STEELE              46.77N 99.92W
08/24/2006  E60 MPH          KIDDER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORMS PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ZERO
            VISIBILITIES. REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

&&

VJENSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TORNADO          2 S STEELE              46.83N 99.92W
08/24/2006                   KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            MAIL CARRIER REPORTED NO DAMAGE AND TORNADO HIT NOTHING.
            REPORT RELAYED BY KIDDER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

VJENSEN