Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, May 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FROPA TNGT BTWN THE MDLS. GFS IS A FEW HRS FASTER THAN
NAM12 AND PNAM...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON BRINGG PCPN INTO WRN CWA ARND
21Z. AM STILL NOT CONVINCED IT WL BE THAT EARLY...BUT CARRYING A
SLGT CHC WONT HURT. BEST OMEGA WONT MV OVR CWA TIL AFT 00Z. CAPES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSV...BEING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CST. HWVR
DECENT K INDICES IN THE 30S. AFT FROPA FLO WL TURN QUICKLY BACK TO
SW AHD OF NXT SHOT. THIS ONE APPRS TO BE DRY AND IS XPCTD THRU THE
AREA FRI NGT. UPR LO APPRS TO FINALLY BE LIFTG OUT OF THE GRT LKS
STATES THIS WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WE RMN IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE XTNDD. AFT MAIN UPR TROF SWINGS THRU SAT WE
WL BE ON BACK SIDE OF TROF THRU MIDWK. SERIES OF WK WVS WL MV THRU
THE FLO PUSHG WK BNDRYS THRU CWA. DGEX AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON
THIS...BUT NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING. BOTH AGREE BEST CHC FOR PCPN IN
XTNDD WL BE ON WED. DGEX IS DRIER THAN GFS...WHICH IS A KNOWN GFS
BIAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HPC KEEPS IT DRY AND THIS IS THE
PREFERRED WAY TO GO ATTM. TEMPS WL BE SEASONABLE...70 AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CLOUDS APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY SO CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN AROUND 4KFT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT 05-07Z. ONLY BROKEN MID DECK AFTER THAT
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN ONLY BROKEN CIRRUS AFTER THAT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
VEERING TO WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MARINE ZONES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT TO
INCLUDE THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. SO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. FOR THE ALBEMARLE I CAPPED WINDS AT 20
KNOTS AND KEPT THE EXERCISE CAUTION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158 UNTIL 2
PM FRIDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
505 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-190915-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
505 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOUTH
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-170-190915-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO SURF CITY NC FROM 20 TO
40 NM-
505 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVSORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

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