Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 15 to 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED WITH
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND IN FACT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
DO NOT EXPECT THE EXTENT OF SEVERE STORMS AS YESTERDAY BUT THE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH 1-1.5K J/KG CAPE...LOW WET BULB ZERO
AROUND 9K FT AND FAIRLY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN TREAT FROM TSTMS
TODAY WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING OFFSHORE. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING IFR CIGS INLAND SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY LATE
THIS MRNG AS HEATING BEGINS. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG WILL LIKELY SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSTMS...THEN ADDITIONAL FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...DIAMOND BUOY REPORTING 7 FT THIS MRNG WITH WINDS IN THE
20 KT RANGE. NO OTHER REPORTING SITES QUITE THIS HIGH BUT FEEL
AREAS BEYOND 10 MILES LIKELY EXPERIENCING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
THAN NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND CMANS REPORTING BASED ON PRESENCE OF
TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND SLOWLY INCREASING GRADIENT AS SFC
BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST. WILL PLACE
SCA FOR THIS AFTN AND EVNG ACROSS FAR SRN WATERS...MAINLY FOR
AREAS BEYOND 10 MILES AND MENTION LESSER SEAS NEAR SHORE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154-156 UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM
     TUESDAY.
&&

SK/MLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1119 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-161530-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
1119 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-170-161530-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO SURF CITY NC FROM 20 TO
40 NM-
1119 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN EFFECT FROM OREGON INLET TO N OF
SURF CITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM OREGON
INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-098-103-104-161530-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1119 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.