Flash Flooding in North Carolina, June 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS EXIST THIS AFTERNOON... INCLUDING A SHORT
TERM RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL... AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH TONIGHT: CAPES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 3500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC AND STORMS POPPED UP QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BACK THROUGH THE PIEDMONT... ALONG THE MID LEVEL MESOSCALE
VORTICITY CENTER LEFTOVER FROM LAST NIGHTS EASTERN KY MCS WHICH IS
NOW TRACKING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK BUT
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCE WILL
BRING A THREAT OF WET MICROBURST WINDS... WITH A LESSER THREAT OF
HAIL GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL... INTO THE EVENING. EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH SUCH A HIGH CAPE... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.7-2.0 INCHES SO WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND WEAK SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION... AREAS OF FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A RISK. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED EARLIER
AND STATEMENTS/WARNINGS ADDRESSING THESE CONCERNS WILL BE ISSUED
THROUGH THE EVENING AS NEEDED. FORECAST POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH A BIT AS THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST... HOWEVER
WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM AND COPIOUS
MOISTURE... WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE LIFT COULD BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET TO THE NORTH. LOWS 69-75.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEEPENS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD... AND MOISTURE FLUX REMAINS HIGH INTO
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS... HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON... NEARLY EVERY DAY.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH A CONTINUOUS
STREAM OF PERTURBATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN
OVER 200% OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THE NAM INDICATES
A DIP IN BOTH PW AND RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH RE-DIGS
OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC... NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING WEST INTO FL. DONT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN KICKING THE UPPER JET AXIS -- AND
HENCE THE BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE -- TO THE NORTHWEST AS THAT TROUGH
DIGS... AND WILL BRING POPS DOWN JUST A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY. WELL
ALSO SEE AN INCREASINGLY TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE FL UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND WE GET A DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. STILL
EXPECT THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHWEST... WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
MOST PROFOUND. TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS WILL RANGE FROM JUST OVER
AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST TO NEARLY TWO AND A HALF INCHES IN THE
NORTHWEST. MAY ISSUE AN ESF FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS... WITH WARM LOWS MOSTLY
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

POOR CONTINUITY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING FINER SMALL
SCALE FEATURES (LOCATION OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/TROUGH) AND
THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION/DEPTH OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SCALING POPS BACK TO CLIMO AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL SOLUTION
OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE SUBTROPICAL REGIME AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES...BUT GENERALLY WITHIN NORMAL
RANGE. HIGHS 88 TO 93. LOWS 67 TO 71. -BL

&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO 10KFT WILL RESULT IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH TRAJECTORIES OFF THE ATLANTIC. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH SCATTERED TSRA. COVERAGE WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOMORROW ALONG LEADING EDGE
OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS.
MARITIME MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT PREDAWN STRATUS THAT WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF AOA 13 TO 14Z WITH STRONG HEATING. -BL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...LOCKLEAR
AVIATION...LOCKLEAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-240800-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE LED TO A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... MAINLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS FIRST. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL THE SIZE OF
PENNIES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STORMS.

ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
LIGHTNING. A SINGLE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE OVER 100
CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES IN JUST 15 MINUTES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE... AS THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING. AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR IN A FEW OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS... WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SPOT FLOODING WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT FLOW
OF MOIST AIR OFF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

RFG/GIH

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