Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVEN WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CWFA...MID LEVEL TEMPS
NOT AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS MIXED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPS...
ATMOSPHERE BECAME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH NO CAP. BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING REMAINS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NC FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...BUT LEAST LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND LIGHT WIND...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. VERY WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND RECOVERING DEW POINTS.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVES MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS NOT AS WARM AS TODAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIKE TODAY...BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESS
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL FEATURE A CHANCE
OF SHWOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. THOSE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WE WILL FEATURE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN...INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...FOR FAVORED
SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES VARYING
BY A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS ALL OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE OTHER
PERIODS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
ANY UPPER VORTS THAT MAY AFFECT US AS THE EASTERN RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND SOME SEMBLENCE OF TROFINESS DEVELOPS OVER PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH THE
FRONT IN OUR AREA. BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BREAKING UP OVER OUR FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL AFFECT KAVL AND
POSSIBLY KHKY UNTIL THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD DRIFT SOUTH TO THE
SC SITES BEFORE DISSIPATION. LEAST LIKELY TO AFFECT KCLT. ALREADY
HAD SHORT TEMPO FOR TS KAVL WITH CB ELSEWHERE. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
FOR AMENDMENTS. UNLESS A STORM MOVES OVER A TAF SITE...VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR FOG LIKELY AT KAVL BY SUNRISE.
HAVE SHORT TEMPO FOR MVFR HAZE SC SITES WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL 00Z OR LATER TAFS TO
ADDRESS THOSE STORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...SAB
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             2 SW WAYNESVILLE        35.46N 83.02W
06/22/2006  M0.88 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AS LARGE AS NICKELS FALLING IN THE ALLENS CREEK
            AREA...JUST SOUTHWEST OF WAYNESVILLE.

&&

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