Flash Flood and Hail in North Carolina, June 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND MAV
NOTED BY SPC ARE THE PRINCIPAL MET FEATURES FOR STORMS OTHER THAN
DAY TIME HEATING. STORMS LIKELY BE ORGANIZED ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA WHILE PULSE STORMS EXPECTED SOUTHERN TIER. SOME STORMS
EXPECTED BE SVR AND SPC LIKELY ISSUE SVR STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DUE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT SVR TO EVE AND ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED SEAWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
AS WELL. CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LIMITED TO EASTERN TIER OF CWA
FOR ONLY THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM (NOW ALBERTO)IS
EXPECTED BY TCP TO MOVE NE ALONG SE US COAST. GOOD WESTERLIES ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND PLACE BEST RAINFALL EAST OF TRACK.
SO POPS WILL BE LOW FOR TUE AND WED WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE
FAR EASTERN TIER.

CLOUDS MON AND NE WINDS TUE AND WED SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS AT TO
JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR TONIGHT.
THEN LOWER DEWPOINTS PROVIDES COOLER NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS BECOMING A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...CONTINUED TO FOLLOW
CLOSELY THE EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM HPC DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.  THIS RESULTS IN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.  IF THE RESULTANT TRACK IS
EXACTLY AS FORECAST WOULD ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING LOWERED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.  FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...FINALLY SOME INDICATION OF INCREASED HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.  THIS
SHOULD SETTLE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR A TIME...
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TO SOME SMALL CHANCE OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LINGERING 850MB MOISTURE AND
HEATING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND NOT
WANTING IN THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EVERY DAY...OPTED TO HAVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S...AND IF WINDS CAN BECOME
A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...COULD NOT RULE OUT
READINGS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 90S IN SPOTS WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAY SATURDAY.  GFS HAS HIGHER MEAN
MOISTURE MOVING IN SUNDAY SO WITH HEATING COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THEN AND WILL HAVE THAT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIFFICULT BUT...
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NAM AND RUC...ANTICIPATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND 22Z TO 03Z FROM WEST
TO EAST.  INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE-BASED THETA-E
ON MSAS OVER THE FAR WEST PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY...SHOULD RESULT IN INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING.  FOLLOWING
THIS...APPROACHING SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST...EITHER REMNANT MCV
FROM EARLIER MCS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR STRONGER WAVE
MOVING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MAY AID IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.  FORECAST PERIODS OF MVFR WITH TEMPO OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
LINGERING...PREDOMINATE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TRIAD AROUND AND AFTER
12Z MONDAY.  THIS IS WHERE MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PREVAILING
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR OR VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
AROUND 15Z MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF

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