Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY AOA 50
PERCENT...HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE...MID LEVELS ARE MUCH DRIER. SINCE WE STAY ON THE MOIST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH DAPE VALUES WILL STILL BE RESPECTABLE AS MANY
AREAS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE L60S. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES WON/T DO MUCH FOR HAIL POTENTIAL EITHER...DESPITE SB-CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM A WELL MIXED FFC/GSO SOUNDING.
THEREFORE DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A LITTLE GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP THE BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER THE GREAT VALLEY OF TN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE WRF HAS
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER ERN
TN...WHILE THE WRF HAS MORE OVER WRN NC/SC. SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD MEAN THE HIGHEST POP IN THE MTNS WHICH IS HOW IT
HAS WORKED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE MID SHIFT PICKED UP ON THIS
TREND NICELY...AND ABOUT ALL I PLAN TO DO IS RAISE POPS JUST A
HAIR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...AGAIN THE MID SHIFT/S NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. I
WON/T MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE (OR THREE TIMES) AND RAISE THE
HIGHS TODAY...THAT/S FOR SURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 237 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF SW TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE HUDSONS BAY VORTEX...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE SEEN
OVERTOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE INDUCED ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES...RESULTING IN SUPPRESSION OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNCAPPED AND QUITE
UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS AN ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK LEE
TROUGH AND TERRAIN FORCING)...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS DESPITE VERY WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPS AND UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS (GENERALLY LOWER 60S). AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING
RIDGE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WE HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO THE MNTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT WILL CAREFULLY CONSIDER FOLLOWING RAH/S LEAD AND
EXPANDING THEM TO THE PIEDMONT PRIOR TO PRESS TIME.

AS EASTERN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST
OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
WEST TONIGHT...AND DO NOT FEEL THE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ADVECT
ANY MCS INTO THE AREA BEFORE WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GENERAL INCR IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE MNTNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCR WED AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEARER...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCR AND SHEAR INCREASES (SUGGESTING ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE ALONG MESOSCALE/STORM SCALE
BOUNDARIES.) LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE MNTNS...WITH
SOLID CHANCES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WED NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONSIDERING THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...MODERATE LOW LEVEL
JET...DECENT DEEP LAYER FORCING/SHEAR...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT AN MCS
WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CWFA WED NIGHT. WE WILL CARRY LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SUCH A FEATURE
WOULD BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA THU AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
SLOW PUSH TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE ECMWF AND BASED ON THIS...WILL SHOOT
FOR A DRYING AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE CWFA
ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY WARM MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BETTER LLVL RETURN
FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENUF TO OUR SW TO PRECLUDE MENTION
OF ANY TSTM CHANCES.

AVIATION...
LOOKING AT HZ/FG THIS MORNING...BUT STILL MVFR ALL SITES. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AFTN-EVE CONVECTION WITH CB CLOUDS CARRIED BY 18Z AT
KAVL...CB CLOUDS ALL SITES BY 19Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ052-041800-
HAYWOOD-
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER HAYWOOD COUNTY...

AT 12:45 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
HAYWOOD COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WERE OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE BIG CREEK BASIN.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AS HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
CREEKS IN THE AREA TO INCLUDE BIG...JOHN MUCK AND MOUSE
CREEKS. FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...
PARTICULARLY IN CRESTMONT AND WATERVILLE. PERSONS CAMPING OR HIKING
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD ALSO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES IN
THESE AREAS.

TANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ052-053-041845-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 133 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
LEICESTER TO CANTON TO LAKE JUNALUSKA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAYNESVILLE TO WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CANTON BY 150 PM EDT.
  LEICESTER BY 155 PM EDT.
  WEAVERVILLE BY 220 PM EDT.
  WOODFIN BY 225 PM EDT.
  BARNARDSVILLE BY 235 PM EDT.
  ASHEVILLE BY 240 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ051-041900-
SWAIN-
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SWAIN COUNTY...

AT 1:30 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTH
EASTERN PART OF SWAIN COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WERE OVER THE HEADWATERS OF RAVEN AND STRAIGHT
FORKS. THESE FORKS JOIN TOGETHER AND FLOW THROUGH THE CHEROKEE
INDIAN RESERVATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
CREEKS IN THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...PARTICULARLY IN CHEROKEE. PERSONS CAMPING OR HIKING IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD ALSO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES IN THESE
AREAS.

TANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ064-SCZ001-041930-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING OCONEE AND TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF LAKE JOCASSEE...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 18 MILES NORTH
OF WALHALLA...AND 2 MILES NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE JOCASSEE
ALONG THE OCONEE AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY BORDER...DRIFTING SOUTH AT
LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THROUGH 330 PM...THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WILL
NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF LAKE JOCASSEE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
ALSO EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS UNDER THE
THUNDERSTORM ITSELF.

44