Damaging Wind in North Carolina, April 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 09Z FOR ALL BUT THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 830 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. I WILL CUT BACK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EASTERN ZONES AS TREND HAS BEEN FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAIN ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN...AND MAKE ONLY
VERY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. I WILL MAINTAIN THE
CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE NIGHT AS STRONG
DIVERGENCE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN
OVER NORTHERN AL AND MS...IMPLYING THAT THE SFC LOW OVER THE MO/AR
BORDER WL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN BNDRY LAYER FLOW BACKING WITH TIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS. THE GFS
ALSO HAS A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200
UTC...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BECOME HIGHER WITH TIME...SO THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO LONG AS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP. TRAINING PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...PRIMARILY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 327 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SAT IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE FA IS VIRTUALLY FREE OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. OBS SHOW THAT DWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH A FEW 50S OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. LAPS HOLDS ANY
CAPE OVER A 100 OVER THE NC MTNS...AND THE REGION EAST OF THE MTNS
REMAINS STABLE TO SFC BASED PARCELS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND DWPTS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMER DWPTS SHOULD YIELD CAPES GREATER THAN 1K
J/KG AFTER 0Z. TS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS
AFTER 0Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER
TN AND MS. PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS WILL BE COVERED UNDER TOR WATCH
165 UNTIL 3Z.

ANOTHER LINE OF SEVERE TS WILL POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS KY AND E TN LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NC MTNS AFTER 6Z. HOWEVER...THIS LINE WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER E TN AND MAY
WEAKEN BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES THE MTNS. USING THE NAM...A
SECOND ROUND OF SVR TS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN AL AND GA AFTER 9Z AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY
STRONG WIND FIELDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE NAM
INDICATES THAT THIS CLUSTER AND IT/S ASSOCIATED MCV WOULD SUPPORT TS
AFTER SUNRISE. FURTHER SUPPORT COULD ALSO ARRIVE AS A FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA SAT AM. A COMPROMISE OF THE QUICK GFS AND SLOW
NAM WILL BE USED FOR SAT DAYTIME POPS AND WX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLOWER SYSTEM MOVEMENT FAVORED BY NAM AND KEPT
CHANCE POPS OVER SE ZONES SAT EVE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MTNS
EARLY EVE BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES E OF AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT
COOLER TEMPS BEHIND COLD FRONT SUN MORNING...EVEN COOLER TEMPS MON
MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BULDS IN FROM THE N. SFC HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER E TUE NIGHT...PUTTING AREA IN WARMER S FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE US THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED INTO THU.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WED
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE
CARRIED WED EVE THRU THU AFTN FOR MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE TO ABOVE AVG FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND
TIMING EARLY AND CONVECTIVE WEATHER DURING THE OUTLOOK. GUSTY
CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNSET...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD BEYOND 0Z SAT. NAM
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HOLD ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY DRY
BL OVER THE FA WILL LIMIT ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO THE MTNS.
I EXPECT THE FRONTAL BAND TO WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AFTER 9Z AND
EAST OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 12-17Z. MOS GUIDANCE IS MIXED ABOUT VERY LOW
CLOUDS WITH DEEP CONVECTION. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...I WILL ADVERTISE PERIODS WHERE CIGS AND VIS GO BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR SAT AM. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT KAVL AND KHKY BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-080830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
430 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
CAESPSGSP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTERS SHOULD MAKE SURE THAT
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE AWARE OF THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-081015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
904 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM
ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING AND DEADLY SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE. WHILE SOME WEAKENING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS THE MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
THE MORE STABLE AIR OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...FROM
HICKORY TO GREENVILLE TO TOCCOA...WILL BE MOST AT RISK FROM THE
PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING...AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REDEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT BEFORE EXITING THE PIEDMONT BY LATE
SATURDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. IF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE SAME LOCATION...ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT OFTEN PRESENTS A GREATER DANGER SINCE
RESIDENTS MAY BE SLEEPING DURING THE MAIN PERIOD OF IMPACT. BE
SURE TO LISTEN TO THE LATEST UPDATES BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE
NIGHT. IF YOU OWN A NOAA WEATHER RADIO RECEIVER...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SET TO ALERT YOU IN CASE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE SHELTER IN THE MOST INTERIOR ROOM OF YOUR HOME IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-080500-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1018 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 1 AM...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL SEND
GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH INTO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF
CHATTANOOGA LATE THIS EVENING WILL BRUSH WESTERN GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES BEFORE 1 AM. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-080600-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1130 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE GRADUALLY INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 2 AM...

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIP SLOWLY INTO
THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 2 AM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN OF UP TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR...AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH.
SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COULD CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1138 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

NCZ048-080445-
MADISON-
1138 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHWEST MADISON COUNTY THROUGH
1230 AM...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO ALLENSTAND
BY MIDNIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS THUNDERSTORM. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF
40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1230 AM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

NCZ033-049-050-080645-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1233 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 130 AM...

AT 1230 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BULADEAN IN NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH...AND WILL REACH
ELK PARK BY 1 AM...AND BEECH MOUNTAIN BY 115 AM. EXPECT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL..AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-080715-
AVERY-CALDWELL-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
MCDOWELL-BURKE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON
103 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD THROUGH 3 AM. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM...AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS
FROM THE SMOKIES SOUTHWARD. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BRYSON CITY TO
ROBBINSVILLE TO FRANKLIN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

HG