Hail in North Carolina, April 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
QUITE A LOT GOING ON WITH THIS FORECAST THRU TONIGHT. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW MOVES THRU TODAY PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THRU WITH IT. ATMOS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND GOOD SPEED SHEAR. BEST FORCING WILL BE MOVING THRU THIS MORNING.
WILL INCREASE POP TO LIKELY OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH CHC NRN TIER.
EVEN THOUGH POP LOWER ELSEWHERE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THRU
THIS MORNING. SEVERE CHC BEST OVER MTNS/NE GA AND WESTERN UPSTATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTS TO NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE
FOR LATE MORNING. PRECIP CHC LINGERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY HEATING INCREASING THE
INSTABILITY. THAT SAID...SOME WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COULD DEVELOP AND
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
THEN. THERE WILL BE SOME NW FLOW PRECIP FOR THE MTNS THIS EVENING
THEN DIMINISHING TO THE NRN MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATMOS BECOMES
COLD ENUF FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE GRADIENT WINDS. WINDS INCREASE THRU THE
DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING LAYER DEVELOPS CREATING
SIGNIFICANT GUST POTENTIAL EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. GFS NOT QUITE
AS HIGH WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE NC MTNS AND A LAKE WIND ADV ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT WINDS OVER THE MTNS TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ATMOS REMAINS WELL MIXED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER DOWNWARD OMEGA WITH CAA OVERNIGHT.
WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NC MTNS TONIGHT. POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT SHOW ANY STEEP NOSE DIVES TO THE SFC OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS...BUT SHOULD BE WINDY/GUSTY THERE. SO DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO EXTEND LAKE WIND ADV...OR ISSUE WIND ADV. WILL STILL BE
BREEZY FOR TUESDAY.

GFS A LITTLE STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WED NITE. THE NAM FASTER AND
FARTHER EAST WITH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVES NORTHWARD TO OUR WEST WED AND THU. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN TUE...WILL KEEP FCST DRY TUE THRU
WED NITE.

TEMPS VERY WARM TODAY...THEN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT THRU
WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS HAS COME MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 00 UTC RUN OF
THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION IS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT
MOVES OUR WAY. WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +14 DEG C THU AND
FRI AHEAD OF THE LOW...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST IN THE 70S IF
NOT 80S THOSE TWO DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP FRI AND
SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THIS WAVE WL TAP AS IT DOESN/T LOOK TO BE OF SUFFICIENT
AMPLITUDE TO REALLY TAP THE GULF. DRY AND STILL MILD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SW NC MTS TO DIMINISH AS IT PASSES
BETWEEN KAVL AND KAND...WHERE VCSH WIL BE CARRIED. ACTIVITY MAY NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR E AS KGSP/KGMU. EXPECT SCT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
AREA...WITH SOME SOME HIGH ALTOCUMULUS LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION IN
MTS. WIND STAY UP OUT OF SW TONIGHT...BUT WITH SLIGHT VEERING...KAVL
WIND SHOULD TURN FROM S TO NW...LOCKING IN LOW VFR CIG OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS SC TAF SITES AS WELL WITH MOISTURE BETWEEN WARM
AND COLD FRONTS. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE TO NC PIEDMONT
BY MORNING...SHIFTING FOCUS OF LOW VFR CIGS FROM SC SITES...TO
KHKY/KCLT. BY LATE MORNING...WIND SHOULD COME UP AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A VERY
DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN. WINDS MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER SOME
LOCATIONS. COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES WILL BE NEEDED
TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NECESSARY. THE DRY AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER
BY A FEW POINTS...BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA.
HOWEVER THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM
     MONDAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM 6 PM
     MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 6 PM
     MONDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082 UNTIL 6
     PM MONDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...BPM
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
105 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 77. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-030700-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-
TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...CHEROKEE...
FRANKLIN...HENDERSONVILLE...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...SYLVA...
WAYNESVILLE
110 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

AT 105 AM...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER...OR BETWEEN CULLOWHEE...FRANKLIN AND
ROBBINSVILLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND...AT TIMES...SMALL HAIL.
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ANEW IN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BLANKETING THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS SHOULD NOT STAY IN ONE
LOCATION FOR LONG...AS THEY WERE MOVING QUICKLY.

AS THE PREDAWN HOURS NEAR...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. STORMS WITH THIS SECOND BATCH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG...
AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY...AND OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING...WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL INCREASE GREATLY AS THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS AFFECTS THE
MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.

THE FIRST STORMS DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS BY AROUND 3
AM OR SO...AND WE EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS IN WAVES THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH THEM ALL INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             OTTO                    35.06N 83.39W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       MACON              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AN OFF DUTY POLICE OFFICER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL IN
            OTTO.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ033-034-048>050-053>055-030730-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL-MITCHELL NC-
YANCEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE
231 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...

AT 2:25 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOT SPRINGS...TO BULADEAN...
TO THE TRI CITIES AREA IN TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. AS THE STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...AND NEWLAND...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50
MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ034-035-054>056-030800-
ALEXANDER-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKORY...MARION...MORGANTON
311 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
MOVING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE...

AT 3:03 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NEAR LITTLE
SWITZERLAND TO BLOWING ROCK. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS
OF UP TO 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MORGANTON AND
LENOIR AND SURROUNDING AREAS...THEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ051-052-059-030800-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...SYLVA...WAYNESVILLE
328 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING THE SMOKIES...

AT 317 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK...THE STORM WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN
NEWFOUND GAP AND I-40 AT AROUND 4 AM. IF THE STORM MAINTAINS ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR SWAIN AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

NCZ048-051>053-059-030900-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...CHEROKEE...SYLVA...WAYNESVILLE
410 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...

AT 405 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SMOKIES...MOVING
EAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THROUGH 5 AM...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE
SMOKIES...OVER THE PIGEON RIVER GORGE AND NEWFOUND MOUNTAINS...AND
APPROACH THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50
MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA
UNTIL 11 AM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE