Damaging Wind in North Carolina, April 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE
REGION...YET THE REALLY JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALSO HELPING TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT CLIMBED AS HIGH AS WE WERE
ANTICIPATING...AND THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A LOOK AT THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM BLACKSBURG
AND GREENSBORO WILL VERIFY. SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON
THE TENNESSEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...IN THE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THERE...BUT THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THEY ENCOUNTER THE MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER OUR
CWFA. STILL...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN MADISON
COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 WILL BE CANCELLED COINCIDENT
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ANEW WITHIN THE WATCH COUNTIES BEFORE EXPIRATION.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE UPSTATE
AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO A SURFACE WAVE
IN IOWA. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING AHEAD OF A
MAJOR CLOSED LOW AND DEEP TROF THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
STEADILY INTO WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT WEAKENING AT THE MOMENT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY LATER TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND FIELDS...ALREADY STRONG...ARE PROJECTED TO
INCREASE EVEN MORE...AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
RATHER GUSTY WINDS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
MOUNTAIN LAKES.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN FROM ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN GIVE EVERYONE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WE
MAINTAINED CHANCE OF RAIN AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE TENNESSEE BORDER
AREAS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION. JUST A FEW
TWEAKS MADE TO THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS...MAINLY TO RAISE MINIMA
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 619 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
NEW ZONE PACKAGE AND ASSOCIATED MATRIX PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135...IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE FAR WESTERN 3 NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 254 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIVE INTO TN VALLEY TONIGHT...CROSSING AREA
MON. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING...DIRECTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION E ACROSS AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR
CONCERN ABOUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE OUTLOOKED ENTIRE
AREA...ESPECIALLY MTS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES MTS TOWARD
DAWN...WHEN MODEL HAVE BEST OMEGA...BUT GUIDANCE POPS NOTABLY
BELOW LIKELY...AND HAVE CUT BACK TO HIGH CHANCE IN W WITH LOW
CHANCE IN E. WINDS TO INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY NC MTS
MIDNIGHT UNTIL 6 AM.

AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA MON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
TO E PORTION OF AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RATHER STRONG AND CAPE
BECOMES RATHER LARGE IN E...SO ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CONCERN...THIS TIME MAINLY I-77. BY LATE AFTERNOON POPS DROP IN
FOOTHILLS WITH DRYING BEHIND FRONT...WHILE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
UPPER SYSTEM REACHES N NC MTS IN UPSLOPE FLOW...SUPPORTING INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WIND TO COME UP AHEAD OF FRONT ALMOST ENTIRE AREA
MON AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WITH FROPA BEFORE EVENING...AND
WIND OF ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NC MTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG FROPA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND H8 WNDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS WL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE NRN MTNS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL MTNS AS WELL.
NAM HAS QUITE A BIT OF NW FLOW MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
MTNS. BUFKIT AND AWIPS SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND 4000 FEET LATER AT NIGHT.
WON/T CARRY THAT NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL A LITTLE LOW...BUT ITS
WORTH WATCHING.

WINDY IN THE MTNS AND BREEZY ELSEWHERE ON TUE...THOUGH WITH THE
AMOUNT OF H5 ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND...WNDS MAY VERIFY STRONGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NC ZONES. MAX
TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. SOME MTN RIDGETOPS PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ON TUE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE.

WITH H5 UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED
MORNING...SFC RIDGE WL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND THEREFORE CENTERS
THE SFC HIGH JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY WED.
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS WOULD
AFFORD...A FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE WOULD BE A GOOD BET FOR THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. IF
THE GFS IS RIGHT...MIXING WL BE STRONGER WITH THE CHANCES OF A
FROST/FREEZE NOT AS GOOD. FOR NOW INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE
NON-MTN ZONES WHERE THE LOW IS 36 OR LESS.

LATEST GFS HAS COME MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 00 UTC RUN OF
THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION IS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT
MOVES OUR WAY. WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +14 DEG C THU AND
FRI AHEAD OF THE LOW...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST IN THE 70S IF
NOT 80S THOSE TWO DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP FRI AND
SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THIS WAVE WL TAP AS IT DOESN/T LOOK TO BE OF SUFFICIENT
AMPLITUDE TO REALLY TAP THE GULF. DRY AND STILL MILD ON SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SW NC MTS TO DIMINISH AS IT PASSES
BETWEEN KAVL AND KAND...WHERE VCSH WIL BE CARRIED. ACTIVITY MAY NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR E AS KGSP/KGMU. EXPECT SCT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
AREA...WITH SOME HIGH ALTOCUMULUS LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION IN MTS.
WIND STAY UP OUT OF SW TONIGHT...BUT WITH SLIGHT VEERING...KAVL
WIND SHOULD TURN FROM S TO NW...LOCKING IN LOW VFR CIG OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS SC TAF SITES AS WELL WITH MOISTURE BETWEEN
WARM AND COLD FRONTS. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE TO NC
PIEDMONT BY MORNING...SHIFTING FOCUS OF LOW VFR CIGS FROM SC
SITES...TO KHKY/KCLT. BY LATE MORNING...WIND SHOULD COME UP AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT MOS DEWPOINTS MAY
BE 3 TO 5 DEG TOO HIGH IN SOME INSTANCES. WHILE I DID GO A LITTLE
UNDER MOS...I DIDN/T GO THAT LOW. WITH DOWNSLOPE HELPING TO WARM MAX
TEMPS INTO THE M60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...MIN
RH/S WL FALL TO 25 PERCENT OR LESS IN MANY LOCATIONS. ATTM WINDS ARE
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WATCH. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
NAM...AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS...STILL HAVE QUITE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE MODEL WINDS MAY ALSO BE UNDERDONE
FOR TUE. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WINDS AND IN HOW MUCH
WETTING RAIN WE WLL GET...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...IF QPF IS LIGHT...A WATCH WL LIKELY NEED TO
BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 6
     AM MONDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
105 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
AND WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 77. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004-010-022315-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-STEPHENS-
620 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMER...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF COMMERCE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTH OF CARNESVILLE BY 640 PM EDT.
  LAVONIA BY 655 PM EDT.
  LAKE HARTWELL BY 700 PM EDT.
  FAIR PLAY BY 710 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
AS IT MOVES INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES LAKE HARTWELL. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
LAKE...SO BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS IT APPROACHES.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
843 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-030145-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE
843 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 840 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY OF EASTERN TENNESSEE. IF THIS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 9 PM.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MADISON COUNTY AT 915 PM AND THE AREA AROUND HOT SPRINGS BY 920
PM. THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF HAYWOOD COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED
AS WELL. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS...
REACHING YANCEY COUNTY AFTER 930 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...VERY FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

NCZ034-035-054>056-066-067-030300-
CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...MORGANTON...HICKORY...
COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON
957 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE MOUNTAINS...

AT 957 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 1030 PM. COMMUNITIES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
PARKWAY AND AT HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH AROUND 1015 PM. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG...BUT COULD STILL
REACH THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     15 N MARSHALL           36.01N 82.68W
04/02/2006                   MADISON            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 212
            IN LAUREL.

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARS HILL               35.83N 82.55W
04/02/2006                   MADISON            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A TREE THROUGH THE ROOF OF A
            HOUSE.

0950 PM     HAIL             BURNSVILLE              35.92N 82.30W
04/02/2006  M0.75 INCH       YANCEY             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER
            HAIL.

&&

OUTLAW