Damaging Wind in New York, September 29, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
930 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
COLD FRONT RUNNING N/S THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THIS
SLOWER MOVEMENT. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NJ AND EASTERN
PA FOR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HEADING
THROUGH THEIR REGION. THIS LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...WITH A MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER DUE TO SE SURFACE FLOW
AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO OUR AREA...BUT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND
STRONG SHEAR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SOME SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO WESTERN ZONES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE RAIN BAND PUSHES EAST INTO CONNECTICUT AND
LONG ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 08Z WHEN LLJ AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MIX THIS
OUT.

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON ABOVE
THINKING AND LATEST OBS/SAT/RAD/MOD DATA.
&&

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT 12Z NAM
IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...ITS SLOWER TO LIFT THE S/W AND
FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY...BUT CAA COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN 1C AND 3C FRI NIGHT MAY CAUSE
PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.
HIGHS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE
A RATHER PLEASANT EARLY FALL DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SO SFC LOW WILL
BE SLOWER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THROUGH SUN
NIGHT WITH THE AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
HOWEVER A BIT BREEZY MON WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN AND THE DEPARTING LOW. H5 FLOW FLATTENS OUT ON WED
ALLOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BE A
QUICK MOVER AND PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH THE FAST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH JUST SOME FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS.

NO BIG VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL START OUT AND END SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MODERATE
BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS UNDER A RETURN FLOW TUE
AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND
PENNSYLVANIA IS PRECEDED BY AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS BRINGING
SOME LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CEILINGS...TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NEW YORK
CITY...WITH GON BECOMING IFR. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO THE NEW YORK...AND HPN...TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY INTO
EWR AND TEB THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 03Z WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
EAST OF NEW YORK CITY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM 03Z TO 07Z WHEN MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THERE ARE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
THESE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND WEAKER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z WESTERN TERMINALS AND
16Z EASTERN TERMINALS AS RAIN ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND
A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT IN THE NEW YORK CITY VICINITY.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15Z KTS IN THE COLDER AIR AND
POSSIBLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES...CONTINUING TO 00Z SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
WILL PUT SCA FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ARE POSSIBLE AS A 35 KT 950 HPA JET CROSSES THE WATER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ON THE OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA ON THE HARBOR AND
SOUND WILL EXPIRE FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS LLJ PASSES THROUGH. SCA
CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT...AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT WITH THE
W/NW CAA FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE NOT CONTINUED SCA FOR ALL
WATERS ON FRIDAY FOR WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING IN
THE CAA FLOW...WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE RUNNING BELOW
25 KT.

WINDS/SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
WATERS AND FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT
AND CROSSES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. INCREASING SE FLOW AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA ONCE AGAIN AT THAT TIME.

LONG PERIOD OF NW FLOW EXPECTED THEREAFTER...FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT...THEN DRY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY WHEN
ANOTHER 1/4 TO A 1/2 INCH IS EXPECTED. FLOWS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
REMAIN LOW...THEREFORE RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVY SHOWERS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
PONDING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ335-338 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ330 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ355 UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350-353 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
         SATURDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-300230-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ335-338-300230-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ330-300230-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTS UP TO
25 KT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ355-300230-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WINDS AND SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ350-353-300230-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1019 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.