Hail in New York, June 29, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
308 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559 IN EFFECT FOR CONVECTION FROM HUDSON
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS ON EAST. THIS CONVECTION IS PRE FRONTAL AND
HAS PRODUCED SOME SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND UP TOP MARBLE HAIL
LOCALLY. THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND RAPID COOLING ALOFT. VIL OF THE
DAY IN EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ARE IN THE
LOWER 50S...BUT OUT NEAR BUFFALO ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE IN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH CHARACTERISTIC LOWER VIL VALUES.
ANY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LINER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS TOWARD MORNING. THE NORTHERN STREAM
REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE...AND ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
A FEW MIGHT HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO THE VALLEYS...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SOME INDICATIONS IN GUIDANCE FOR A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TO
INCREASE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND AN UPPER JET
SEGMENT STRENGTHENS IN CANADA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...RAPID WARMING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY TRACK THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY THEN TEMPERATURES
GETTING ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS SO SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND TIMING OF PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL MONDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF CANADA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLING AND DRYING THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN A PROBLEM OVER KALB ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE SCATTERED ONES WILL TAKE PLACE AND COULD IMPACT
BOTH KPOU AND KGLF THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH MARKEDLY. WITH WET GROUND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...BUT
WE THINK IT WOULD ONLY BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR AS  A BIT
OF A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP WHICH WOULD MIX THE AIR UP. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM STILL
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY AREAS AND RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD...AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FOR DETAILS ON RIVER LEVELS AND FORECASTS...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/ALY
AND GO TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) PAGE.

THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW LOCALITIES. MORE OF THESE
COULD TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED AND SHOULD PRODUCE NO ADDITIONAL RISES ON RIVERS. THEY
COULD HOWEVER PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON ON ANY STREAMS THAT THE RAIN
FALLS ON. ALSO...PONDING OF WATER WILL TAKE PLACE ON ROADWAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS...IS THAT A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD FRIDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE GROUND TO
BEGIN TO DRY OUT...AND THE RUNOFF TO FINALLY SUBSIDE IN EARNEST.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&

NAS/HWJIV/VILLANI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
545 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ032-033-038>040-082-301100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON-
545 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT..
FLOODING CONTINUES...REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 MPH AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-301100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
545 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 MPH AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             SCOTIA                  42.83N 73.96W
06/29/2006  E0.75 INCH       SCHENECTADY        NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY-SIZE HAIL.

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHENECTADY             42.80N 73.93W
06/29/2006                   SCHENECTADY        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON CARS AND HOUSE ON CAMPBELL AVENUE.

&&

CORRECTED FOR THE SIZE OF HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ060-061-065-066-292330-
EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-
653 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN COLUMBIA AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

AT 653 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLERMONT
TO RED HOOK TO STAATSBURG...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
EAST OF SAUGERTIES TO 6 MILES EAST OF RHINEBECK TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
RHINEBECK...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

A WEATHER SPOTTER IN RHINEBECK REPORTED PEA-SIZE HAIL WITH THIS
STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LIVINGSTON BY 700 PM EDT
STANFORDVILLE BY 710 PM EDT
PINE PLAINS BY 715 PM EDT
MILLBROOK AND ANCRAM BY 720 PM EDT
COPAKE...MILLERTON AND AMENIA BY 730 PM EDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST MILTON             43.04N 73.93W
06/29/2006                   SARATOGA           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

OKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ041-050-300015-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
751 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SARATOGA COUNTY...

AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF MECHANICVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
50 MPH WITH THIS STORM IN MALTA.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CEDAR BLUFFS AND GILBERT CORNERS BY 800 PM EDT
MYERS CORNERS AND BEMIS HEIGHTS BY 805 PM EDT
THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD AND DEANS CORNERS BY 810 PM EDT
QUAKER SPRINGS...COVEVILLE...GATES AND BURGOYNE BY 815 PM EDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ060-061-300045-
EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
809 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 806 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANCRAM...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF
SAUGERTIES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIVINGSTON BY 815 PM EDT
ANCRAM BY 820 PM EDT
COPAKE BY 830 PM EDT
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PHILMONT BY 840 PM EDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             MOORES MILL             41.70N 73.75W
06/29/2006  E0.88 INCH       DUTCHESS           NY   NEWSPAPER

&&

OKEEFE