Damaging Winds in New Mexico, June 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
930PM MDT WED JUN 14 2006

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE ZFP BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY VIRGA ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
IN ADDITION...WILL TWEAK ON POPS FOR THU...REDUCING COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL DROP 20S AND INSERT DRY WORDING FOR
ALL AREAS. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NE MAY BE A MIXTURE OF WET/
DRY CELLS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOWL WITHIN 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM 19Z
THU THRU 02Z FRI FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NPWABQ AND UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. DPORTER

&&

.DISCUSSION 250 PM MDT WED JUN 14 2006...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FORM FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE SURGE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE UPR LVL TROF
APPROACHES THE STATE...MID LVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...MAKING FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS AND ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS ANOTHER RDG BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...UPR LVL HIGH WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE
RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER. THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE WILL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ001-NMZ002-
NMZ003-NMZ004-NMZ005-NMZ006-NMZ007-NMZ008-NMZ009-NMZ010-NMZ011-
NMZ012-NMZ013-NMZ014-NMZ015.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ101-
NMZ102-NMZ103-NMZ104-NMZ105-NMZ106-NMZ107-NMZ109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-NMZ107-NMZ108.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT WED JUN 14 2006

NMZ001>021-026-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT WED JUN 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ARE
ANTICIPATED...AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
REMEMBER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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