Drought in New Mexico, April 1 to 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
843 PM MST FRI MAR 31 2006

.UPDATE...THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS STEADILY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...DOWNSTREAM OF ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG OR/NOCAL COASTS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE WILL
INITIALLY BE EXPENDED ON TOP DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...00Z
MODEL X-SECTIONS SUGGEST UPWARD OMEGA STRENGTHENING THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SAT WHICH WILL HASTEN THE MOISTENING PROCESS
AND ONCE THE SATURATED LAYER GETS SUFFICIENTLY THICK PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP AND QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER.
SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 OR
8500 FEET. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN/PEAKS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVY GIVEN MODEL QPF. MIDSHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE FOR THE
AM HOURS. BUT FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BEEF UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND NUDGE POPS UPWARD ACROSS WC/NW NEW
MEXICO...MAINLY TO EXPAND NMRS COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.  KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...153 PM MST FRI MAR 31 2006...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON TWO STORM SYSTEMS...ONE IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT BEING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND ONE IN THE EXTENDED...DURING THE TUE
THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD.

MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING E OF NM THIS PM WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE STATE. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL CENTERED OFF THE SRN OR AND NRN CA COAST.
THE STORM WILL HEAD E AND WEAKEN TON AND SAT...WITH A RATHER WEAK
TROUGH CROSSING NM SAT NIGHT. BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP OVER THE W
INTO THE CNTRL AREAS OF NM FROM LATE TON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NAM STILL
MORE BULLISH ON THIS PRECIP THAN THE GFS...BUT GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS CLOSER TO THE GFS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 IN THE 700 TO
500 MB LAYER AND LI/S AROUND ZERO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY THUNDER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH INITIALLY...AROUND 7500 FEET LATE TON AND 9500 ON
SAT...BEFORE DROPPING TO 6000 SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR ON
SAT...WITH FOCUS IN THE FAR NE WHERE COMBINATION OF 30 TO 35 KNOT 700
MB WINDS AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BY THE PM.
SUSPECT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS FOR THE FAR NE PLAINS...BUT LOOKS LIKE A
LOW END EVENT OVER A SMALL AREA...SO WILL NOT ISSUE NOW BUT DEFER TO
THE EVE OR NIGHT SHIFT. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA
AS WELL WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING RED FLAG WARNING LEVELS. WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP SAT NIGHT FROM THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS ON E.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM FROM SUN INTO MON.
MID LEVEL WINDS RELAX SUN BUT STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. FOCUS SUN MAY BE
FROM THE CLINES CORNERS TO CLOVIS AREA IN THE AM TO MIDDAY HOURS.
SURFACE FRONT DROPS S OVER THE STATE SUN NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE WEAK E
WIND EVENT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LATE SUN NIGHT. MON WILL BE
DRY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO CROSS
NM ON MON WITH ONLY HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE.

NEXT STORM TO AFFECT NM WILL CRASH INTO CA TUE AND THEN LIFT NE ON
WED AND THU. MOST MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING MAIN STORM CENTER FARTHER
N...WITH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW...WHICH
ENDS UP CROSSING NM WED NIGHT. WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE POPS IN THE
TUE THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD. EVEN SO...CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR THE
NW ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SE ZONES. OUR FAR SE ZONES MAY END UP
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THIS EARLY APRIL
SYSTEM. CHJ

&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SAT PM FOR NMZ104-108.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MST FRI MAR 31 2006

NMZ001>021-026-011300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MST FRI MAR 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE STRONG
WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH COULD AFFECT MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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