Hail and Damaging Wind in New Jersey, July 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED POPS TO
30 LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS AND NRN 3 COUNTIES IN NJ FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEXT TIER DOWN
AND THEN NO MENTION OF PCPN FROM PHL S AND E. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

RPW

PREVIOUS DISC...
.OVERVIEW...
INTO THE SECOND MONTH OF SUMMER 2006 AND SO FAR WE HAVENT HAD A
REAL HOT SPELL YET. LOOKING AT SUMMER TEMPS 2004-2005 AND SO FAR
THIS YEAR, THERE HAVE BEEN TWO BRIEF HOT SPELLS WHICH PROMOTED
HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, JULY 25-27 AND AUG 2-6TH 2005. NEXT FEW
DAYS THE TEMPERATURES MAY HIT OR TOP 90 BUT STILL NOT AN EXTENDED
OPPRESSIVE PERIOD BUT MAY FEEL OPPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.COUPLE OF HUMID DAYS THEN A BREAK IN
THE WX ON FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES FROM HE ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THIS MAINTAINS A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PERIODIC SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY. ONE
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH A
MINOR LOBE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM HAVE
POPPED UP IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND SOUTH JERSEY BUT ARE SHORT-LIVED.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC N AND SCHC SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON TODAY/S HIGH OF AROUND 91 BUT MEX/MAV/FWC
BACK OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WHEREAS THE NAM INTRODUCES A THREE
DAY HEAT WAVE OF 90-90-92. WILL BACK OFF FROM THOSE TEMPS WITH ALL
THE CLDS(DEBRIS) AROUND FROM TSTMS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER, WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE DPS THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH ABOUT 97-98 FOR A
FEW HOURS ON WED. THEN COME THE SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE REMAIN STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ARE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE
SHORT WAVES FROM WED ONWARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN COMPARING
THE NAM/WRF TO THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS VERY WET WHILE THE
NAM IS DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME,
BUT ANY OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM ADVERTISES A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WHICH DRIVES THE
UNSTABLE AIR OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORT WAVE WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. SOME DISAGREEMENT OF THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY
RAIN COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAY ISSUE AN SPS, BUT NOT
TOTALLY SOLD AT THIS POINT WHERE THE EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
INSTABILITY OVER AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IS QUITE
EVIDENT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS LOCALIZED LIFT HAS INITIATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS/EVEN THUNDERSHOWERS OVER NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS SINCE IT
SHOULD BE WELL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE
SHOULD BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, A FEW OF
THE TAF SITES COULD HAVE MARGINAL VFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE
TOWARD AND AROUND SUNRISE, SO A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THE
USUAL SUSPECTS.

AFTER SUNRISE, ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY IS SHAPING UP WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS, AS WELL AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. SOME
OF THE CUMULUS MAY BE LOCALLY BROKEN, ESPECIALLY NORTH LATER IN THE
DAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. SO, A MENTION OF CB WAS
INCLUDED FOR RDG AND ABE.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS SLIGHTLY IN THE
SOMEWHAT INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY,
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS THEME WILL BE
RETAINED, BUT SINCE IT STILL IS NOT WITHIN THE FIRST OR SECOND
PERIOD, NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...STAUBER/EBERWINE
AVIATION/MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
516 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-120930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
516 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

THE RIP CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS LOW IN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNIGN
BUT MAY APPROACH MODERATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL GIVE US A HEAT INDEX IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-120930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
516 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EBERWINE(RESENT FOR RIP CURRENT INFORMATION TODAY)