Damaging Wind in New Hampshire, September 24, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SOUNDING DATA AVAILABLE FOR GYX THROUGH OCTOBER 2ND.

EXPECTING A BUSY AFTERNOON AS STRONG WIND FIELD ADVECTS AND
DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD SHIELD
ALREADY SHOWING UP ON MORNING SATELLITE PHOTOS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL JUMP IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
60S WHEN THE INVERSION BREAKS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLD SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITHIN BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS.
SPC HAS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
AS WELL.

WILL CONTINUE TO TREAT THIS EVENT AS A STRONG WIND GRADIENT (JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA) LOW TOPPED ISOLD CONVECTION EVENT. THANKS
FOR THE COORD BTV/CAR/BOX VIA TELCON.

GALES WILL REMAIN UP ON THE WATERS. BOATERS MAY HAVE THE
PERCEPTION THAT A GOOD WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE IF WE BREAK OUT TO
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE
DETEORATING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 332 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION. INSTABILITY LOOKING MARGINAL AND HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED SO NOT NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE SITUATION
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH 50 TO 75 KT WINDS FORECAST BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO TRANSPORT THIS MOMENTUM DOWN.
SPC CURRENTLY SHOWING MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME WESTERN
MAINE IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

IN ANY CASE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND GOOD ALIGNMENT THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. DAY SHIFT ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING WINDS AND WILL BE UPDATING TO ADD CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH AS
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS GOING IN MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND EXCEPT SOME BLENDING
ADJUSTMENTS ON WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AWHILE
EARLY MONDAY...OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD VALUES FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
952 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

ANZ150-170-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-251400-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA FROM
25 TO 40 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
952 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT AREA IS ALL
OF WESTERN MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1201 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

MEZ012-NHZ002>009-241730-
BELKNAP-MERRIMACK-NORTHERN CARROLL-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN
CARROLL-SOUTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SULLIVAN-
1201 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...SULLIVAN
COUNTY...MERRIMACK COUNTY...OXFORD COUNTY...GRAFTON COUNTY...CARROLL
COUNTY AND COOS COUNTY THROUGH 130 PM...

AT NOONTIME...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VERMONT.  THIS LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST AT 50 MPH.  IT WILL QUICKLY CROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 1230 PM AND 130 PM BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN
BORDER OF MAINE SHORLTY THEREAFTER. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
114 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

MEZ012-NHZ002>004-241800-
NORTHERN CARROLL-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
114 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY...GRAFTON COUNTY...
CARROLL COUNTY AND COOS COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 114 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN IN GRAFTON COUNTY...NEW
HAMPSHIRE...MOVING EAST...NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
WOODSTOCK...LINCOLN...LIVERMORE...CRAWFORD NOTCH...PINKHAM
NOTCH...JACKSON...CHATHAM...STOWE...SWEDEN AND LOVELL THROUGH 200 PM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
140 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

MEZ012-018>020-023-024-NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014-241845-
ANDROSCOGGIN-BELKNAP-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL
YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-INTERIOR
YORK-MERRIMACK-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN
OXFORD-STRAFFORD-
140 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...BELKNAP
COUNTY...STRAFFORD COUNTY...MERRIMACK COUNTY...OXFORD COUNTY...YORK
COUNTY...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND CARROLL COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES WEST OF STONEHAM TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF BRADFORD...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH OF BETHEL TO 6 MILES WEST OF
HENNIKER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
STOWE...STONEHAM...WARNER...TAMWORTH...SANDWICH...SALISBURY...NORTH
CONWAY...MOULTONBOROUGH...MEREDITH AND HILL THROUGH 245 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

MARINE