Damaging Wind in Nevada, May 15, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 PM PDT MON MAY 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF
AFTN/EVE TSTMS. HOWEVER THE AREA OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE AS UPPER HIGH CENTER WOBBLES ABOUT. DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL PUSH INTO THE NERN CORNER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
TO KEEP TSTMS THREAT THERE AT A MINIMUM...HOWEVER WILL STILL INDICATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WILL
BE ACROSS CNTRL NV NWD INTO FAR WRN ELKO CNTY AND ERN HUMBOLDT CNTY
WHERE I WILL GO WITH SCT/CHC COVERAGE. THIS CHANGES ON THURSDAY AS
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SHIFT BACK EWD
AGAIN INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF ELKO CNTY. CEC

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING
BREAKDOWN OF U/L RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S BY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
FOR LATE THIS WEEK...EXPECTING RIDGE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF NRN AND CNTRL
NV. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED FURTHER NORTH
DUE TO INCREASING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PAC U/L
TROUGH NUDGING EAST. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MAINLY NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 50 BY FRIDAY.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 00Z RUNS FROM LAST
NIGHT...PLACING U/L TROUGH OFF OREGON/CALIF COASTLINE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...GFS SHOWS U/L LOW CLOSING OFF FROM MAIN FLOW OFF
SRN CALIF...WITH ECMWF SHOWING MORE IN THE WAY OF A BROAD TROUGH
SPANNING THE ENTIRE PAC COASTLINE. EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS HINT AT
U/L SYSTEM PUSHING INLAND BY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ALSO.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT BY MONDAY...WHICH ISNT
REALLY BAD NEWS CONSIDERING TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. KEPT MINIMAL POPS FOR NOW SINCE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF U/L ENERGY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DID KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP
IN FORECAST ACROSS WRN ZONES WITH HIGHER PW/S AND INSTABILITY.

FURTHER OUT...GFS ENSEMBLE HINTING TOWARDS A PATTERN SHIFT BY LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  TRUDEL
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ADDED VICINITY TSTORMS TO KELY
AND KTPH TAF...WITHOUT RADAR COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS...WILL BE HARD
TO ANTICIPATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF TSTORMS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA...INCLUDING THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM WEST
OF BATTLE MOUNTAIN THRU WINNEMUCCA...THE MARYS RIVER...THE BRUNEAU
RIVER...AND THE JARBIDGE RIVER.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
530 AM PDT MON MAY 15 2006

NVZ030>032-034-036-161500-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
530 AM PDT MON MAY 15 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT...RNOFLSLKN OR WGUS85 KLKN FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT...RNOFLSLKN OR WGUS85 KLKN FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FEHRN