Heavy Snow in Nevada, March 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
205 PM PST TUE MAR 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...PUMMEL. UPPER LOW OFF OF NRN CA COAST CONTINUING TO
GREATLY IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS NRN CA AND THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COPIOUS AMT OF LIGHTNING ACROSS STO FORECAST AREA ATTM. WITH
COUPLED JET OVER THE REGION AND S/WV ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONVECTION TO GO ON FOR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE LIGHTNING HAS YET TO OCCUR
WITHIN FORECAST BOUNDARIES. WILL ADD THUNDER TO MOST ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING...THOUGH IT IS ALSO A DEBATE WHETHER CONVECTION CLEARS THE
SIERRA CREST. WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM
EARLIER THINKING.

SPEAKING OF CLEARING THE SIERRA CREST...HOW MUCH MOISTURE SPILLOVER
IS THERE THAT IT INTO RENO IS THE QUESTION OF THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW
NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FLOW FOR SPILLOVER INTO THE RENO METRO
AREA...BUT WITH SO MUCH CONVECTION IN STRONG DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY POSSIBILITY CAN NOT BE IGNORED. HAVE RAISED QPF VALUES A
TOUCH IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPED VALUES IN MONO COUNTY
TONIGHT GIVEN SUCH FAVORABLE JET COUPLETING ACTION TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NV WEDS MORNING WILL SEE PRECIP BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT THOUGH STILL HAVE PLENTY OF EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY IN
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO KEEP AREA ACTIVE. UPPER JET BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EXPECT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKY
MTNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WILL HAVE BRIEF RESPITE ON THURSDAY AS S/WV RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND JET
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE CA ZONES AND THE SIERRA CREST FOR THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE
KEPT FORECAST RATHER GENERAL HERE GIVEN NEED TO FOCUS ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE QUICK COOLDOWN AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE PAC NW AND BC PROVINCE LATE FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE GULF OF
AK. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN NOT FOOLING AROUND ON PLACEMENT OF
THIS LOW OFF OF THE WRN U.S. COAST...BUT STILL SEEING VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS IN ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS AND LATEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS COULD BE BETTER. HAVING SAID THAT THE
GFS/UKMENT/ECMWF CONSENSUS LOOKS REASONABLE AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY.

TO START THE NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFERING ON UPPER LOW POSITION BUT
THE GENERAL OVERVIEW OF HAVING A SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S.
OR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. COULD BE A GOOD SYSTEM IN THE MAKING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WITH THE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS. MARCH WILL END WITH A ROAR.  FEHRN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE
SIERRA AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS IN VALLEYS AND 60 KNOTS OVER HIGHER SIERRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDS MORNING.
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...SNOW ADVISORY NVZ002 TODAY 1PM UNTIL WED 4AM.
CA...SNOW ADVISORY CAZ072 TODAY 1PM UNTIL WED 4AM
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING CAZ073 UNTIL WED 4AM.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PST TUE MAR 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 WNW MAMMOTH LAKES     37.65N 118.97W
03/28/2006  M13.0 INCH       MONO               CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 10PM 3/27.

0200 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 W MAMMOTH LAKES       37.64N 118.97W
03/28/2006  M20.0 INCH       MONO               CA   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 8 PM 3/27. ELEVATION 9600 FEET.

0200 PM     HEAVY SNOW       N MAMMOTH LAKES         37.65N 118.96W
03/28/2006  M18.0 INCH       MONO               CA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 10 PM 3/27. ELEVATION 7800 FEET.

0223 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 WNW MAMMOTH LAKES     37.65N 118.97W
03/28/2006  M15.0 INCH       MONO               CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 10 PM 3/27. ELEVATION 8200 FEET.

&&

SSNYDER