Hail in Nevada, July 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH CHANCES OF STORMS EACH DAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE.

THE COMBINATION OF AN EXITING JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA CAUSED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA BORDER BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. SWITCHING TO THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA DUE TO HEATING. BUILDING CUMULUS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPREADING INTO MINERAL AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING IMPINGES UPON THOSE AREAS.

TONIGHT...I CANNED THE AFTER MIDNIGHT POPS. WITH THE JET STREAK AND
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS
IN...I SEE NO REASON THAT WE WILL GET ANY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ANYWHERE. ALSO...LOOKING AT SATELLITE WINDS AND
MODELS...I CANT FIND ANY KIND OF JET STREAK ANYWHERE TO JUSTIFY
ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.

SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY AROUND THE RIDGE NEAR THE UTAH
AND NEVADA BORDER. WITH STRONG HEATING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL
REMAINING...A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (EXPECTED)
SHOULD BE ALL IT TAKES TO FIRE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. SUNDAY...THE FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
EVEN FURTHER OFF THE SIERRA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BY MONDAY...THE
TREND OF STRONGER AFTERNOON WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE...WHICH
THEORETICALLY SHOULD SEND THE BEST MOISTURE/STORMS EAST OF THE RENO
AND TAHOE ZONES. I HAVE HELD ONTO THE RUNNING SLIGHT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE FOR NOW AS I WOULD HATE TO HAVE TO FLIP FLOP POPS BACK
INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE ZONES IF THE FLOW MONDAY IS NOT AS STRONG AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ON TUESDAY THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
EVEN WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER...THIS RIDGE
SHOULD STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED SINCE THERE WILL BE NO
SYSTEMS TO HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER FLOW AND THUS IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH.  AS A RESULT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY
WARM THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS WRN NEVADA AND THE ERN SIERRA.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  KEPT AFTN
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEVADA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WARM IN THE SIERRA WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.  WITH THE STRONG LLVL HEATING EACH DAY
INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGH.  A SERIES OF VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE
WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA.  OHARA
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
ISOLD TSTMS...MAINLY OVER ERN ROUTES FROM 21Z TO 04Z.  OHARA
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
840 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             6 ESE GARDNERVILLE      38.92N 119.62W
07/21/2006  E0.25 INCH       DOUGLAS            NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE FELL WITH HEAVY RAIN IN A 30 MINUTE PERIOD.
            MINOR RUNOFF ON THE STREET.

0635 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S GARDNERVILLE        38.89N 119.74W
07/21/2006  M0.25 INCH       DOUGLAS            NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN IN 10 MINUTES.

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E DAYTON              39.24N 119.49W
07/21/2006  U0.00 INCH       LYON               NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING - RAINING HEAVY LAST 10 MINUTES WITH
            QUARTER SIZE DROPS

0820 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LOCKWOOD                39.51N 119.65W
07/21/2006  U0.00 INCH       WASHOE             NV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STANDING WATER FROM HEAVY RAIN ON INTERSTATE 80 FROM
            LOCKWOOD TO MUSTANG

0834 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE RENO              39.60N 119.78W
07/21/2006                   WASHOE             NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BLINDING RAINFALL. WATER RUNNING ACROSS PYRAMID HIGHWAY
            JUST SOUTH OF SPARKS BLVD

&&

JWALLMAN