Heat in Nevada, July 16 to 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER GREAT BASIN WILL BE MAIN FEATURE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MON-TUE PERIOD. ALL MODELS SHOW 595+ DM HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SO
FAR...MOS HAS BEEN UNDERDOING FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS PATTERN...AND
IT STILL LOOKS COOL. FOR EXAMPLE...HIGH IN RENO YESTERDAY WAS 98
WITH 15 C H7 TEMPS. FORECAST FOR MON-TUE IS FOR 18 C TEMPS IF NOT 19
C ON THE NAM-WRF BUT MOS ONLY GOING 99 OR SO. FIGURE WE WILL BE
CLOSER TO 105 WITH THAT WARMING AND WE WILL BE SEEING NEAR RECORD
HIGHS. IT ALSO MAKES SENSE THAT WE SHOULD WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY AS
WE ERODE THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

OTHER IMPLICATION WITH WARMING AND THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CAP
WILL BE INCREASING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...WILL BE REMOVING
MENTION OF STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS VERY LITTLE CU
FORMATION. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY SEE MORE BUILDUPS ACROSS
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. AT
THIS POINT...BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS TOO REMOTE TO MENTION
AFTER TODAYS RELATIVE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS ADDED BACK BY MID SHIFT IF EVENING
DEVELOPMENT IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN WE
HIT OUR HOTTEST TEMPS...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN POPPING.
TYPICALLY...CONVECTION BEGINS ON THE HOTTEST DAY IN MOST CASES WITH
GRADUAL COOLING THEREAFTER. HAVE THUNDERSTORMS UP TO HIGHWAY 50 FOR
MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY HAVE ALSO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS NORTH INTO
LASSEN COUNTY DESPITE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW UP THERE. WITH THERMAL
TROUGH NEARBY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LEE OF LASSEN PEAK...A COUPLE
STORMS COULD FIRE.

OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS LARGE INVERTED TROF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
TUE...BUT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THIS FEATURE TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL EXTENDED PERIOD. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AROUND RIDGE.
THERE IS ALSO AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WHICH WILL
MOVE WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY THE WAVE
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OFF OF THE SRN CA COAST AND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH. THE MAIN MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 35N 130W BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.  EITHER WAY
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL PRODUCE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP IN MINERAL COUNTY AND ALONG THE SIERRA ALL THE WAY UP
TO LASSEN COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TSTMS WILL BE
WET AS PW VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 0.75-1.0 INCHES AND LIGHT FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS. POPS WERE INCREASED FURTHER...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS WAS ADDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
INCREASED ENERGY EAST OF LOW OFF OF CA COULD PUSH ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. BENINATO
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BENINATO

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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