Hail in Nebraska, March 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STRONG
UPPER WAVE BEING KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE IS SITTING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  A WARM FRONT CAN ALSO BE SEEN EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE NOSE OF A NARROW BAND OF RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN
BE SEEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA CURRENTLY WITH DECENT THETA E ADVECTION SHOWING UP OVER
THIS AREA.  RUC AND LAPS DATA REVEAL SOME WEAK DESTABILIZATION
ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THIS AREA.

LOOKS AS THOUGH THE AREA IS HEADED TOWARD AN ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KICK THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONTINUED
DESTABILZATION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF CAPE EXCEEDING 300-500 J/KG WEST OF HIGHWAY
283.  LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER SW
NEBRASKA OR NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND BEGIN PROPAGATING
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET IN RESPONSE TO THE DRYLINE
MOVING EAST AND A 50+ KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE WELL IN PLACE BY
THIS POINT.  ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE WILL STILL
EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WITH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL EVENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THE UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THIS
WILL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE AREA WITH A CLEAR SKY DEVELOPING AS
WELL.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS VARYING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH THE LEE TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
REGION.  THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER NIGHT AND DAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER WAVE THEN SLIDES
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EAST OF
THE AREA.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF WAA AT 850MB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH A BAND OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.  SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO
TUESDAY ON 300 AND 305K SURFACES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  BEST LIFT IS INDICATED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES.  THE MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THEN FORECAST DRIES BEHIND THE THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WHICH WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE NORTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE ECMWF.  THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN
STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO EITHER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS
DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY.  IF MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION
VERIFIES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND CURRENT POPS REMAIN.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES CONTINUING.
EARLIER RUNS OF MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED
PATTERN THAN THE LATEST RUNS. IN A PROGRESSIVE BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN...CHANCES FOR PCPN EXISTS BUT IT IS STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME AND PLACE HIGHER POPS GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
LATTER DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  HAVE BLANKETED POPS FOR NOW
AND WILL REFINE WITH TIME.  GFS HINTS AT SOME COLD AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW...BUT IS A BIT PREMATURE TO MENTION YET.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AWJ/FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006

KSZ005-017-NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084-051200-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
315 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AFTER
8 PM THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A PENNY POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ041-048-049-062>064-075>077-085>087-051200-
SMITH-JEWELL-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HALL-HAMILTON-
YORK-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
315 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OUT OF THESE
STORMS...HOWEVER DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

AWJ