Hail in Nebraska, July 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
242 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING LINE OF
CONVECTION FROM EASTERN SD...TO NE AND CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY IS JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROF THAT EXTENDED
SWD FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THRU NRN KS. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEING INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING
THE NRN PLAINS. UPDRAFTS APPEAR QUITE STRONG PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AS CELLS MOVE THRU 4000-5000J/KG CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WEATHER
WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE TILL 03Z TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS FRONT. ANTICIPATE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THRU EARLY EVENING.
FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH...THUS LIMITING OVERALL HAIL THREAT.
MEANWHILE GOES SALT WINDEX PRODUCTS & DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST MAINLY
WIND EVENT. NAM TPI CONTOURS INDICATE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY TOWARD LATE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...PCPN FOCUS SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HEADS EAST AND FORCES
DRIER/MOST STABLE AIRMASS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. NICE WARM
WEEKEND ON TAP AS UPPER HIGH EDGES EAST AND THKNS INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MOST
LOCATIONS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HAVE MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO POPS
AREAL COVERAGE. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENT WRT TEMPS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE NRN CWA WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY NOT REACHING THE NRN CWA TILL CLOSE TO
12Z MON. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL POPS. ON MONDAY THE MODELS APPEAR TO STALL
THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER WITH MODEST LIFT ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE NRN CWA. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SMALL POPS NORTH WITH
PERSISTENT MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE THRU THE DAY. LLVL JET
KICKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY INTO SD/SRN MN. CANT
DISCOUNT THUNDER OVER THE NRN CWA SO WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT POPS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE GETS MOVED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES SHOWN CROSSING THE CWA...WILL
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT
PCPN OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141315-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
606 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #594 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #597 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE FIRST WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH AND A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL ACT ON VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 90S TO A LITTLE ABOVE 100. HEAT
INDICES DURING THIS TIME COULD REACH 105 TO 110 DURING THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT HAIL OVER ONE HALF INCH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT OMAHA.

ZAPOTOCNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
618 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             1 S BURR                40.52N 96.30W
07/13/2006  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            NE   PUBLIC

&&

VEGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
633 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             2 SE BEATRICE           40.25N 96.72W
07/13/2006  E1.75 INCH       GAGE               NE   PUBLIC

&&

VEGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
650 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             4 S STERLING            40.40N 96.38W
07/13/2006  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            NE   PUBLIC

&&

VEGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
651 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-140145-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...
BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...CLARINDA...COLUMBUS...COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...
DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...FREMONT...GLENWOOD...HARLAN...
HARTINGTON...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NEBRASKA CITY...NELIGH...NORFOLK...
OMAHA...ONAWA...PAWNEE CITY...PENDER...PIERCE...PLATTSMOUTH...
RED OAK...SCHUYLER...SEWARD...SIDNEY...STANTON...TECUMSEH...
TEKAMAH...WAHOO...WAYNE...WEST POINT
651 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

PARAMETERS ARE BCMG MORE FVRBL FOR SUPERCELL STMS ACRS SERN
NEBRASKA.  STG LO LVL MESOCYCLONE WITH 56 KTS GATE TO GATE SHEAR
OVR SERN GAGE COUNTY PROMTED THE TORNADO WARNINGS.  0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY HAS INCRD TO 250 ACRS SERN NEBRASKA.  BULK
RICHARDSON SHEAR HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 40-50 KTS.

THE NEXT AREA OF TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DVLPD ON CNVGNC FM OLD OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER BOW ECHO COMPLEX.  THIS ACTVTY OVR DODGE AND
CUMING CNTYS IS MOVG SEWD AND IS MAINLY A LRG HAIL THREAT.

THIRD AREA OF CNVTN IS ALONG DYNAMIC DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING SEWD
ACRS CNTRL SD AND NERN NEBRASKA. ISOLD LRG HAIL STMS MAY OCR AHD OF
DRYLN.  ATTM THERE IS AN ISOLD CELL IN HOLT CNTY AND MAY AFFECT
KNOX AND ANTELOPE CNTYS DURG THE NXT CPL OF HRS.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
653 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W
07/13/2006  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

VEGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
704 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W
07/13/2006  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              NE   PUBLIC

&&

VEGH