Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER
EASTERN NEB ALSO ON THE EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STARTING TO WANE WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT AHEAD OF SFC/NEAR SFC FEATURE.
SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SHOWING UP VIA MSAS FURTHER W ALONG THE
SFC FRONT LOCATED FROM SERN HOLT COUNTY TO STAPLETON TO NEAR LBF
AND IML. PRESSURES ARE LOWERING ACROSS SWRN NEB ACCORDING TO
LAPS/MSAS AND WITH TCU FORMING IN NRN CO AND SWRN SD...AM HAVING A
TOUGH TIME REMOVING ALL POPS DUE TO POSITION OF SFC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SRN CWA...AND REMAINING FRONT FURTHER WEST AND INDICATION OF A
WEAK FEATURE ALOFT IN MID LEVEL PROFILER DATA. SO WILL GO WITH ISO
TRW IN SERN 1/2 OF CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO TRENDED MIN TEMPS
A BIT LOWER DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE COMMENCES AS ADVERTISED FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS
BECOME SRLY ACROSS WRN CWA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDICATED ACROSS THE
SWRN US ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THEREFORE WOULDNT EXPECT ANY DECENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO TOP THE BUILDING RIDGE...AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO WARM
EASILY. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS LOCAL
STUDIES HERE HAVE SHOWN TEMPS TO BE IN THAT RANGE WHEN THICKNESS
VALUES APPROACH THOSE FCSTD. THANKS TO THE 1930S...RECORDS WILL BE
TOUGH TO BREAK DESPITE THE HOT TEMPS IN THE FCST. WEAK FRONT
PROGGED TO ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT
DONT BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS NAM SUGGESTS. IF IT DOES...
CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL LEAVE AS
A DRY FCST FOR NOW.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO MONSOON TYPE SETUP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK IN THIS...SO WILL CONTINUE
THE DRY FCST IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER..
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WX WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING LATE SAT OR SUNDAY
IN FIRE WX ZONES OF THE ERN CWA BASED ON LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY
WINDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

JWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-141100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
546 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 /446 AM MDT THU JUL 13 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE
FROM ROSCOE TO VALENTINE. STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING AS STORMS TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES...ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

JMC