Hail in Nebraska, April 27, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CDT THU APR 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY...FIRST WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AS SOME MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ALSO FOCUSING ON TEMPS AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP FOR WEEKEND.

SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN CO WITH SLOW MOVING TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH
JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...INTO WESTERN N DAKOTA. MEANWHILE TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS SPIN TO THE WEST...ONE IN MONTANA AND THE OTHER
NEAR NORTHERN BAHA.

TONIGHT...AS TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE EVENING ALTHOUGH CAP HOLDING STRONG SO FAR. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT CATCHES SURFACE TROUGH AROUND SUNSET...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LL MOISTURE LIMITED WITH TDS IN
THE LOWER 40S AT BEST ACROSS THE CWA EAST OF TROUGH...ALTHOUGH MID
40S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED LL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING. SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND GOOD SHEAR. WITH HIGH BASED STORMS...MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS SLOWLY MERGE OVER
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN...BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AN NEGATIVELY
TILTED. MODELS AGREE ON THE MERGER BUT VARY GREATLY ON EXTENT OF
QPF POTENTIAL. GFS DRAWS IN FAR MORE RAIN INTO THE REGION THAN THE
NAM...BUT BOTH SCENARIOS SEEM PLAUSIBLE...THUS WILL GO WITH A BLEND
FOR NOW.

MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE CWA WILL BE WESTERN EXTEND OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. LIKELY TO SEE A DISTINCT LINE DEVELOP...ATTM HIGHWAY 83
LOOKS TO BE A CLOSE MARKER. TEMPERATURE TROUBLE SOME AS UNDER CLOUDS
AND RAIN...CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
50S. TO THE WEST UNDER LESS CLOUDS...60S AND PROBABLY A FEW 70S.

BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK...AND
HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW AS WEEKEND LOW MAY BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE...THUS NEXT SYSTEM MAY NEED TO
BE PUSHES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT THU APR 27 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-280530-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
318 PM CDT THU APR 27 2006 /218 PM MDT THU APR 27 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE IN CHERRY COUNTY TO
IMPERIAL IN CHASE COUNTY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT DO
FORM...WITH STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO FRIDAY THEN
EXIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY WITH STORMS THAT DO FORM EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ON SATURDAY NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHER SPEEDS
POSSIBLE AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS AND LIFTS ACROSS KANSAS INTO
IOWA BY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

KECK