Flash Flood in Missouri, September 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

UPDATED AVIATION

...TORNADO WATCH 796 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIFTING ENERGY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG TO
SEVERE SQUALL LINE. MUCAPES PUSHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
VEERED. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. MEAN STORM
MOTIONS WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT. UNTIL THE
FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS MORNING...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL POSE A FLOODING THREAT.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
ACROSS MISSOURI. A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL TEND TO CLOUD UP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK DEVELOPS. THEN EXPECT STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO HANG AROUND FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LOOK RATHER QUIET AS A DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
WILL GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. CHANCE POPS WERE THEN INCLUDED
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT STARTING TO MAKE A BIT OF PROGRESS
EASTWARD.  STILL HAVE SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT HEADING INTO SW
CORNER OF MISSOURI.  MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST OF SGF/JLN
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND WILL KEEP TERMAINALS DRY OTHER THAN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO BEGIN THE SGF TAFS.  CEILINGS WILL
HOVER AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WINDSHIFT IN SGF
OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY.  CLEARING SKY EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.

LINDENBERG
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
546 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE
  INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
  A SMALL TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST SOUTH OF A NEOSHO TO AVA LINE
  THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS MORNING.

  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
  STORMS WILL AGAIN BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

  HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
  EAST OF A NEVADA TO NEOSHO LINE. DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
  PAST 24 HOURS...AN ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM GAINESVILLE TO ALTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
  INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
  TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44
  AFTER 12 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
822 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTON                   36.69N 91.40W
09/23/2006                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
824 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ALTON                   36.69N 91.40W
09/23/2006                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RUNNING OVER SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
847 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WINONA                  37.01N 91.32W
09/23/2006                   SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DORA                    36.78N 92.22W
09/23/2006                   OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE OAK TREE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
910 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MYRTLE                  36.51N 91.27W
09/23/2006  M10.16 INCH      OREGON             MO   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E MYRTLE              36.51N 91.18W
09/23/2006                   OREGON             MO   PUBLIC

            VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED THE ELEVEN POINT
            RIVER HAS FLOODED OVER HIGHWAY 142. ROADWAY IS
            IMPASSABLE. ALSO...SOUTH OF MYRTLE ROUTE B IS FLOODED
            ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.

&&

SCHULTZ