Hail in Missouri, March 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

FOREMOST FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A BIT FURTHER WEST...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND MAY HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS..AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY. FINALLY...A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ORGANIZED ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL LINE OF STORMS
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

ANOTHER FORECAST ELEMENT OF NOTE IS WINDS TONIGHT. 60KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. AM NOT EXPECTING TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER DAYTIME
MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST SECTION BUT
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CLOSE OFF AS IT PULLS AWAY TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
ALREADY ON SATURDAY AND MORESO ON SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR IS PUMPED
BACK TO THE AREA ON RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE BROADSCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
A REPEAT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH WILL OCCUR AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

251 AM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF WHAT WILL BE A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD BEGINNING TODAY AND LIKELY EXTENDING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CARVED OUT BY AT LEAST THREE
IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVES...WAS SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS LIFTING INTO SW
COLORADO...AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF A 100KT UPPER SPEED MAX
DIVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. FURTHER
EAST...A BROAD WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS CONTINUED TO
UNDERGO RAPID MODIFICATION AS A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING
50F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS SRN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH NARROW TONGUE
OF 60F DEWPOINTS CROSSING THE RED RIVER.

DESPITE MODEL QPF OUTPUT...HAVING TROUBLE IDENTIFYING THE
ANTICIPATED FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z SOUNDINGS DIDNT OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARM ADVECTION
POTENTIAL ALOFT...AND LOW LEVEL JET (ALBEIT QUITE STRONG) IS UNIFORM
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD AREA OF ALTO-CUMULUS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TYPICALLY INITIAL SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HAVE MANIFESTED BY NOW. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
TREND DOWN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY.

IN THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED DESTABILIZATION CERTAINLY EXISTS. BACK EDGE
OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ROTATE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY PROGGED
MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LOOK KOSHER...ACCOUNTING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME QUITE
GUSTY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OF SOME CONCERN
IS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WHICH REMAINS DOMINANT OVER MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT CONNOTATIONS
LATER TODAY...IT HAS MAINTAINED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...RAPID MOISTURE INFLUX IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...WITH MECHANICAL MIXING TAKING
CARE OF THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THAT SAID...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NRN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH TRAILING
DRYLINE REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX ROTATING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED FAVORABLY ASKEW TO
THE N-S BOUNDARY...WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. STRONG
ISALLOBARIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW...WHICH WHEN JUXTAPOSED WITH NEARLY 50 KNOTS
OF SWRLY 850MB FLOW...RESULTS IN ASTONISHING LOW LEVEL HELICITY
VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
DIMINISHING LATE AFTN INSOLATION PLACE LCL HEIGHTS VERY FAVORABLY IN
THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE. AS A RESULT...EVEN WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AN ENHANCED TORNADIC THREAT EXISTS ACROSS WRN
MO/ERN KS. STORM MOTION OF 230/40 KTS COMPARED WITH PROGGED BOUNDARY
MOVEMENT OF 25 KTS SHOULD MAINTAIN DISCRETE STORMS THAT PROPAGATE
AWAY FROM THEIR INITIATION POINT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW CORE WOULD ALSO FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AS WELL EARLY ON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS...COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...SUGGESTS THAT THE EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL
LINE IS LIKELY OVER WRN MO. CONTINUED DEEP LAYER FORCING COMBINED
WITH VERY STRONG AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO/THIRDS OF
THE CWA.

IF THERES A SILVER LINING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN
DURATION DUE TO THE ACCELERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE CLEARING
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD
AND GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE SHOULD THERE BE ANY POST-EVENT DAMAGE
CLEANUP REQUIRED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...ALLOWING THE WESTERN TROUGH TO RELOAD TWICE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A NOCTURNAL MCS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY POTENT SYSTEM IN THE
OFFING NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
103 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY LINE FROM WEST OF SALINA TO NEAR
WICHITA. STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 PM. THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
BETHANY...TO LIBERTY...TO BUTLER.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A LINE OF DANGEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM...STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
THE GREATEST IN EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO OAK GROVE TO BUTLER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
727 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAVANNAH                39.94N 94.83W
03/30/2006                   ANDREW             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 RESIDENCES DAMAGED

&&

MD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
730 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     HIGHLAND                39.86N 95.27W
03/30/2006  E60 MPH          DONIPHAN           KS   PUBLIC

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL AS WELL

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
733 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             BUTLER                  38.26N 94.34W
03/30/2006  M1.75 INCH       BATES              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
735 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             VIRGINIA                38.27N 94.50W
03/30/2006  E3.00 INCH       BATES              MO   PUBLIC

&&

GA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             ALTONA                  38.40N 94.23W
03/30/2006  M1.00 INCH       BATES              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
747 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TORNADO          FILLMORE                40.03N 94.97W
03/30/2006                   ANDREW             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORT

&&

MJ