Hail in Missouri, March 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

FOREMOST FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION FROM EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A BIT FURTHER WEST...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND MAY HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS..AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY. FINALLY...A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ORGANIZED ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL LINE OF STORMS
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

ANOTHER FORECAST ELEMENT OF NOTE IS WINDS TONIGHT. 60KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. AM NOT EXPECTING TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER DAYTIME
MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST SECTION BUT
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CLOSE OFF AS IT PULLS AWAY TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
ALREADY ON SATURDAY AND MORESO ON SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR IS PUMPED
BACK TO THE AREA ON RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE BROADSCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD OVER THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
A REPEAT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH WILL OCCUR AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

251 AM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF WHAT WILL BE A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD BEGINNING TODAY AND LIKELY EXTENDING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CARVED OUT BY AT LEAST THREE
IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVES...WAS SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS LIFTING INTO SW
COLORADO...AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF A 100KT UPPER SPEED MAX
DIVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. FURTHER
EAST...A BROAD WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS CONTINUED TO
UNDERGO RAPID MODIFICATION AS A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS TRANSPORTING
50F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS SRN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH NARROW TONGUE
OF 60F DEWPOINTS CROSSING THE RED RIVER.

DESPITE MODEL QPF OUTPUT...HAVING TROUBLE IDENTIFYING THE
ANTICIPATED FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z SOUNDINGS DIDNT OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARM ADVECTION
POTENTIAL ALOFT...AND LOW LEVEL JET (ALBEIT QUITE STRONG) IS UNIFORM
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD AREA OF ALTO-CUMULUS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TYPICALLY INITIAL SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HAVE MANIFESTED BY NOW. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
TREND DOWN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY.

IN THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED DESTABILIZATION CERTAINLY EXISTS. BACK EDGE
OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ROTATE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY PROGGED
MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LOOK KOSHER...ACCOUNTING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME QUITE
GUSTY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OF SOME CONCERN
IS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WHICH REMAINS DOMINANT OVER MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT CONNOTATIONS
LATER TODAY...IT HAS MAINTAINED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...RAPID MOISTURE INFLUX IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...WITH MECHANICAL MIXING TAKING
CARE OF THE LOW LEVELS.

WITH THAT SAID...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NRN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH TRAILING
DRYLINE REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX ROTATING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED FAVORABLY ASKEW TO
THE N-S BOUNDARY...WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. STRONG
ISALLOBARIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW...WHICH WHEN JUXTAPOSED WITH NEARLY 50 KNOTS
OF SWRLY 850MB FLOW...RESULTS IN ASTONISHING LOW LEVEL HELICITY
VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
DIMINISHING LATE AFTN INSOLATION PLACE LCL HEIGHTS VERY FAVORABLY IN
THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE. AS A RESULT...EVEN WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AN ENHANCED TORNADIC THREAT EXISTS ACROSS WRN
MO/ERN KS. STORM MOTION OF 230/40 KTS COMPARED WITH PROGGED BOUNDARY
MOVEMENT OF 25 KTS SHOULD MAINTAIN DISCRETE STORMS THAT PROPAGATE
AWAY FROM THEIR INITIATION POINT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW CORE WOULD ALSO FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AS WELL EARLY ON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS...COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...SUGGESTS THAT THE EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL
LINE IS LIKELY OVER WRN MO. CONTINUED DEEP LAYER FORCING COMBINED
WITH VERY STRONG AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO/THIRDS OF
THE CWA.

IF THERES A SILVER LINING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN
DURATION DUE TO THE ACCELERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE CLEARING
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD
AND GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE SHOULD THERE BE ANY POST-EVENT DAMAGE
CLEANUP REQUIRED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...ALLOWING THE WESTERN TROUGH TO RELOAD TWICE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A NOCTURNAL MCS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY POTENT SYSTEM IN THE
OFFING NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
103 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY LINE FROM WEST OF SALINA TO NEAR
WICHITA. STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 PM. THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
BETHANY...TO LIBERTY...TO BUTLER.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A LINE OF DANGEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM...STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
THE GREATEST IN EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO OAK GROVE TO BUTLER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVER
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

KOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
118 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

MOZ012-020-301945-
ANDREW-BUCHANAN-
118 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ANDREW AND NORTHERN BUCHANAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 115 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELWOOD...OR NEAR ST JOSEPH...MOVING NORTH
AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COUNTRY CLUB AND AMAZONIA BY 125 PM CST.
  SAVANNAH BY 130 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF ROSENDALE...REA...WHITESVILLE AND BOLCKOW ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HUDSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
148 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

KSZ025-102-302045-
ATCHISON-DONIPHAN-
148 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WESTERN ATCHISON AND WESTERN
DONIPHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CST...

AT 144 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SILVER LAKE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
TOPEKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED QUARTER
SIZE HAIL IN SILVER LAKE AT 144 PM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MUSCOTAH AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF EFFINGHAM BY 225 PM CST.
  8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DENTON BY 240 PM CST.
  6 MILES WEST OF HIGHLAND BY 245 PM CST.

THE TOWN OF ARRINGTON IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
MUSCOTAH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

HUDSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
211 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

KSZ057-103>105-302115-
JOHNSON-LEAVENWORTH-MIAMI-WYANDOTTE-
211 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH...MIAMI AND
WESTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICHLAND TO POMONA
TO HARRIS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TOPEKA TO 13 MILES WEST OF OTTAWA TO 22 MILES SOUTH OF OTTAWA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TONGANOXIE...OSAWATOMIE...LINWOOD AND EDGERTON BY 245 PM CST.
  PAOLA...GARDNER AND DE SOTO BY 250 PM CST.
  BONNER SPRINGS AND BASEHOR BY 255 PM CST.
  LANSING...SPRING HILL AND OLATHE BY 300 PM CST.

PEOPLE IN JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH...MIAMI AND WYANDOTTE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TONGANOXIE...
EDGERTON...OSAWATOMIE...LINWOOD...PAOLA...GARDNER...DE SOTO...
BASEHOR...BONNER SPRINGS AND SPRING HILL...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HUDSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             PRESCOTT                38.06N 94.70W
03/30/2006  M0.75 INCH       LINN               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

MOZ043-044-053-054-302200-
BATES-CASS-HENRY-JOHNSON-
336 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN BATES...EASTERN CASS...HENRY
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CST...

AT 333 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LONE JACK TO CREIGHTON TO SCHELL CITY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES EAST OF PLEASANT HILL TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARDEN
CITY TO 12 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...AND
PEA SIZE HAIL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHILHOWEE BY 350 PM CST.
  LEETON...WARRENSBURG...DEEPWATER AND CLINTON BY 355 PM CST.
  CALHOUN...9 MILES WEST OF KNOB NOSTER AND 9 MILES WEST OF WHITEMAN
  AFB BY 400 PM CST.

HUDSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
429 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             3 NW ARRINGTON          39.50N 95.57W
03/30/2006  M0.75 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

GA