Hail in Missouri, March 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MINOR
CONCERNS DEAL WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
FRIDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WIND ENERGY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OZARKS WITH A SURFACE DRY LINE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 130 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW UNSTABLE ROLL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID 70S WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
HAS OCCURRED. LATEST RUC INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE EVENING. NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR
IN A LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT DEAL WITH THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE LOCATION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
ARE SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST/WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE OZARKS (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44) THROUGH 12Z...THEN HOLD A WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION (BOUNDARY) ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY. DUE TO THE MAIN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE OZARK
PLATEAU PLAYING SOMEWHAT OF A FACTOR...BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
(SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE) WILL RESIDE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
PERIOD. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED EASTWARD.

HPC GUIDANCE AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
TIMING CONCERNS REMAIN A PROBLEM...BUT OVERALL THE OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN A PROGRESSIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL CARRY MVRF CEILINGS AND VICINITY THUNDER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TO OUR WEST
AS DRYLINE ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. MAIN THUNDER
THREAD IS EXPECTED TO END FOR JLN/SGF AFTER 06Z...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR AND GRADUALLY UNLIMITED AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
731 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
AVAILABLE OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW THE STORMS TO PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 10 PM AND THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI THROUGH 10 PM...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
854 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             NEVADA                  37.84N 94.35W
03/30/2006  E0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
904 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRONTENAC               37.46N 94.69W
03/30/2006                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNS BLOWN DOWN. UNSPECIFIED ROOF DAMAGE. TREES LIMBS
            DOWN. ESTIMATED 65-70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
905 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N WALKER              37.93N 94.23W
03/30/2006  E60 MPH          VERNON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST MINERAL            37.28N 94.92W
03/30/2006                   CHEROKEE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN WINDS ESTIMATED 60 MPH.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
928 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HAIL             4 SE WALKER             37.86N 94.18W
03/30/2006  E0.88 INCH       VERNON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             3 S STOCKTON            37.66N 93.80W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       CEDAR              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SCHULTZ