Hail in Missouri, March 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE RUNNING IN THE
15-20F RANGE...WITH VWP FROM KSGF 88D INDICATING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF
LESS THAN 10KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD SUSTAIN LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER LCL
HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAIN QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

IZZI

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING)...

SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS IOWA AND INTO NW
MO AND SE KS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING
WHICH IS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. 12Z KSGF SOUNDING DID SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM 850-650MB...WHICH WILL
CREATE A MODERATELY STRONG CAP THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BEGIN
TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOME. DESPITE THE LESS THAN STELLAR
CONVERGENCE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH COULD ACT TO ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO BREAK THE CAP.

IF THE CAP DOES INDEED BREAK...THEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PROGGED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO SSW/SW...WHICH COMBINED
WITH ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE LCLS/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MEANS THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE NOT ZERO IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH EITHER. IF ANY SUPERCELL CAN SUSTAIN A
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTION...THEN THAT WOULD ENHANCE SR
INFLOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT. UPDATED HWO HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

IZZI/FOSTER

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH EXTENDED)...

THE LEAD IMPULSE THAT BRINGS US CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR CWA WILL BE WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD BE MODERATELY CAPPED OFF BY ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ADVECTING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY APPEARS AS THOUGH
FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND ALLOW FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION WITH
RESPECT THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS
INITIALLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO SLOWLY FILL DURING THE DAY WITH SURFACE FLOW VEERING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE 0-1KM SHEAR. NONETHELESS...
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY SO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WHICH COULD BE APPROACHING 20F BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S. GIVEN THE LARGE T/TD
SPREADS AND THE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN STELLAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAVE
TONED DOWN THE TORNADO WORDING A BIT. DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MARCH STEADILY EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS SYSTEM. UPPER FLOW THEN PROGGED TO FLATTEN
OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES RIPPLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH NO BIG COOL DOWNS IN SITE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
COVERAGE OF CUMULUS AND STRATO-CUMULUS AROUND 4 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL OCCUR IN ANY STORMS. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
    AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM ALONG AND
  EAST OF AN OSCEOLA TO JOPLIN LINE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
  EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
  DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE STRETCHING ACROSS
  FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
  WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
  DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
  COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO
  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT
  TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
  SEVERAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING
  WINDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE
  WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WINDS IN
  THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR AS
  THOUGH THEY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED
  AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A
  SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>105-112100-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-
PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-
DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-
MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA
101 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 62 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 31 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON                CAMDEN                HICKORY
MARIES                MILLER                MORGAN
PHELPS                PULASKI               ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT                  TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY                 BARTON                CEDAR
CHRISTIAN             DADE                  DALLAS
DOUGLAS               GREENE                JASPER
LACLEDE               LAWRENCE              MCDONALD
NEWTON                OZARK                 POLK
STONE                 TANEY                 VERNON
WEBSTER               WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...APPLETON CITY...AURORA...
AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...BUFFALO...CABOOL...CAMDENTON...
CARTHAGE...CASSVILLE...COLE CAMP...EL DORADO SPRINGS...ELDON...
FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...GAINESVILLE...GALENA...GREENFIELD...
HERMITAGE...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...KIMBERLING CITY...LAKE OZARK...
LAMAR...LEBANON...MANSFIELD...MARSHFIELD...MONETT...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NEOSHO...NEVADA...NIXA...
OSAGE BEACH...OSCEOLA...OZARK...PINEVILLE...REPUBLIC...
ROGERSVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON...
THEODOSIA...VERSAILLES...VIENNA...WARSAW AND WAYNESVILLE.

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
03/11/2006  E0.88 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN NOEL.

0229 PM     HAIL             NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
03/11/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN NOEL

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     HAIL             NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
03/11/2006  E1.00 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN NOEL

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             STOVER                  38.44N 92.99W
03/11/2006  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN STOVER

&&

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             STOVER                  38.44N 92.99W
03/11/2006  E1.75 INCH       MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN STOVER

&&

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

MOZ067-112130-
ST. CLAIR-
311 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEAST ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CST...

AT 307 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOWRY CITY...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IZZI