Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EASTERN IA ACROSS NW
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WRF-NMM AND GFS BOTH HAVE STRONG CONVECTIVE
SIGNALS OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD EVOLVE FROM THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES NOW OR SEPARATELY
LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET GETS CRANKING. REGARDLESS OF
ORIGINATION IT APPEARS PRETTY LIKELY THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP OVER KS AND PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED MCV.
CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD SPILL
INTO OUR NW COUNTIES PRIOR TO 12Z SO KEPT ONGOING LOW POPS IN PLACE
FOR LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROWS FORECAST WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT.
BOTH GFS AND WRF-NMM ARE DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX
AND MOVING IT INTO OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS WERE TO PAN
OUT THEN THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PVA FROM THE
VORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND/OR ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MCV...HOWEVER EVEN WITH THAT ADDITIONAL FLOW THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF ANY NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT LEAVING
PULSE/LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING TAKES PLACE THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
UNLIKELY TO BE ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE MAIN
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
APPROACH 2 BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. DID
INCREASE POPS AND ADD +RA TO THE GRIDS BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH THE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL INFLUENCE TOMORROW NIGHTS
WEATHER DIDNT SEE ANY NEED TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH WATCHES OR
ESFS.

THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY WILL AT LEAST IN
PART BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS
CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AND UNDER THE GUN FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...HOWEVER WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD OF
LESS HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ALSO...THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THURSDAY
NIGHTS CONVECTION AND COLD POOL COULD SEND THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAN EXPECTED REDUCING OUR PRECIP CHANCES EVEN MORE...BUT
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON.

IZZI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY ONWARD)...

A SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY PLACING THE OZARKS IN A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR INSIGNIFICANT
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...MINOR SHORTWAVES COMING
OVER TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE FIRST
OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0000 UTC TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO DIE OFF HERE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME STEADY AT BOTH AIRFIELDS AROUNF 7-10 KNOTS. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS COME IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT FOR THE MOST
PART...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED. WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
756 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS OR WEST
  CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER 3 AM TONIGHT. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MAKE
  IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
  SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ALLOW
  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
  MAIN THREAT.

  IN ADDITION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
  THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO
  PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA/IZZI