Hail in Missouri, July 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER HOT DAY WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES.
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILERS DEPICTED THAT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINED
ANCHORED OVERHEAD. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAD MIXED DOWN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHILE MOISTURE WAS POOLING OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS.

EXTREME CAPE IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MOIST
AXIS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD RAPIDLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN REACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS LOWER SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP MIXING. HOWEVER HEAT INDICES WILL STILL CLIMB
TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RETREATING RIDGE. INITIAL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE EASTERN OZARKS
STAND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE SLOWER WFF MODEL SOLUTION
WHICH SAGS THE FRONT INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS IN
QUESTION...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL NOT BE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OUT EAST. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE OZARKS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WELL
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO SALEM THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INCLUDING WEST PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
230 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
  FROM 103 TO 110 DEGREES.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE
  FROM CAMDENTON TO WEST PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
  THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
  AGAIN REACHING 104 TO 110 DEGREES.

  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
  BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E ARROLL              37.11N 91.65W
07/18/2006                   SHANNON            MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREE BLOWN DOWN INTO POWERLINES

&&

IZZI