Flash Flooding in Missouri, July 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

BIG CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT
FORMED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LOW WAS DEPICTED OVER IA WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH EXTENDED EASTWARD THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN
IL...IN AND OH. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO ARCING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LOW TO NEAR OK AND TX PANHANDLE. THIS PLACES THE PAH FA IN A WARM
SECTOR WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH LAPS
SHOWING CAPE RANGING FROM 400 J/KG IN SOUTHERN IL TO 2000 J/KG
JACKSON PURCHASE AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SUPPORTS THIS AS TSRAS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA ATTM. VISIBLE SAT LOOP
INDICATED SEVERAL MCV OVER AR EARLY THIS AM THAT ARE CURRENTLY
SPINNING UP SOME STORMS OVER THE JACKSON PURCHASE AREA. CURRENT
VISIBLE SAT LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL MORE MCVS LIFTING OUT OF OK INTO SW
MO. CURRENT SPC MD FOR DETAILS ON THAT AREA.

NOW CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUND AFTER ROUND OF PRECIP ONLY
TIMING...AMOUNTS...AND PLACEMENT STILL REMAIN THE COMMON
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE SUITE OF MODELS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE TNGT THROUGH WED. ESPECIALLY WED AS A
RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WED. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORT
WAVE ALBEIT LESS OF A CHANCE AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD SATURDAY. I DID
INTRODUCE ISLD SATURDAY. ITS HARD TO RULE A CHANCE OUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND DAILY HEATING. OTHERWISE KEPT CHANCES OUT FROM SUNDAY
ON.

AS FOR TEMPS AGREE WELL WITH PREVIOUS FCSTR IN COOLING TEMPS IN THE
SHORT TERM DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HOWEVER KEPT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY AS PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING FOS.
HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-120930-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND AREAS OF KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE MAIN HAZARDS
EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL POSSIBLE WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS TRAVEL OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES. COMBINED WITH THE HUMID CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS
SHOULD FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.