Hail in Missouri, January 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN THE
ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN OVER EASTERN OK AND ARKANSAS SHOULD BRING 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MO TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH YET ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THOROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF WEATHER THAT WILL OCCUR IN TWO MODES...1)
CONVECTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT TRANSITIONING TO 2) A COLD/LOW
STRATUS/LIGHT RAIN-DRIZZLE-MIXED PRECIPITATION PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN KS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ALREADY OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KS. 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED
NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO EAST CENTRAL OK AND MOST OF AR. NAM
PROGS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO PRESENT OBSERVED
TRENDS...WHICH MOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT. MODEL 0-1KM
CAPE OF 300-500 J/KG (OVERALL SOUNDING CAPES OF 700-800 J/KG) ARE
PROGGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO. STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS...ENOUGH FOR SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY
MAY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT EXITS THE
REGION...SO REALLY JUST LOOKING AT A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WORDING HAS BEEN BEEFED UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WRAP UP BEHIND THE NEARLY
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES NOT
TOO FAR OFF FROM SUPPORTING SNOW...BUT BELIEVE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE
JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN WET SNOW FLAKES
AT BEST. ALREADY HAS A SNOW-RAIN MIX GOING IN THE FORECAST...AND
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WOULDNT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AT SOME POINT...BUT
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUT THE KIBOSH ON
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

IN WHAT SEEM LIKE AN ENDLESS CYCLE THIS WINTER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP THIS
WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE
SYSTEM. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00 UTC TAFS...COLD FRONT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT THIS
TIME WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER. STILL A
CHANCE TO SEE LOWERED CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  ONCE FRONT
PASSES...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF POST FRONTAL RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY 21Z FRIDAY.

GAEDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6PM.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

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