Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
E-W STRY FNT STILL OVR CNTRL KY INTO CNTRL MO AND KS. UPR LVL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVR SRN US. PRECIP CHCS REMAIN FCST DIFFICULTIES
THRU TMW.

FOR TNGT...MDLS INDICATE AN MCS FORMING OVR SRN IA INTO NRN MO TNGT
AS A FAIRLY STRNG LLJ FORMS OVR KS AND VEERS INTO ERN MO. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF 09Z SREF KEEP PRECIP IN NRN PORTIONS OF CWA THRU 21Z WED.
PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE MCS MAY MV FURTHER S AND AFFECT ERN MO.
THIS SEEMS TO BE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING. SINCE 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS INDICATE A MORE ELY
PROPAGATION...HAVE ONLY SLGT CHCS W OF MIS RVR. FOR TMW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING AFTN. HOWEVER...IF ANY
OUTFLOW BDRYS REMAIN IN THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW SCT
TSRA.

TEMPS HEAT UP TMW AND THURS AS FNT RETREATS. DWPTS IN UPR 60S AND
LWR 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR CRITERIA IN CNTRL MO. MID SHIFT
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES FOR TMW AS NEW MDL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

FOR THE EXTD...NOT MUCH GOING ON. PRECIP CHCS RETURN ON MON INTO
TUES AS A CDFNT MVS SWD INTO THE CWA. SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN WITH HI
TEMPS IN LWR 90S.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...H500 SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THRU SRN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NERN MO/W CNTRL IL WITH RAIN CHANCES THRU MOST
OF THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE E. FURTHER S...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS GOTTEN MORE ACTIVE WITH SCT TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT TRIES TO PUSH MORE NEWD...BOTH FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD AS A WRMFNT...AS WELL AS H850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INCREASING FURTHER NE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
TSRA THRU THE OVERNIGHT AS EVERYTHING LIFTS NEWD. ALL TAF SITES
APPEAR TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THEREBY
ENDING MUCH OF THE RAIN THREAT.

OUTSIDE OF TSRA...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
VALID TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THREAT OF PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES IN NERN MO/W CNTRL IL AND WILL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.

ELY SFC WINDS WILL VEER WITH PASSAGE OF THE WRMFNT...TO SLY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
408 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HEAT
TO GIVE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH ANY
REPORTS OF HAIL...STRONG WINDS...OR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TILLY