Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE SHOWS BAND OF CLOUDINESS JUST UPSTREAM...OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME DISCONTINUITY IN SURFACE WIND FIELD
NOTED DUE TO THIS AMS PRE FRONTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE PAH FA. THERE HAS
BEEN NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SO FAR AND THE NEW NUMERICAL MOS OF BOTH
THE GFS BASED MAV AND NAM BASED MET SUGGESTS TEENS OR LOWER FOR POPS
IN THE 1ST 12 HOUR PERIOD. ONLY THE NGM BASED FWC MOS HAS HIGHER
NOS. THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN...IS THE POP WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT.

CURRENTLY LOWER 80S OBSERVED BEHIND FRONT AND LOWER 90S AHEAD OF
IT...HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE FRONT TO COME IN AFT 00Z...SO
DIURNAL CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES WILL BE DIMINISHING. TDS RANGE FROM
M-U60S BEHIND TO L-M70S AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. GIVEN WE ARE RUNNING HIGH
CHC CAT AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE FIELD IS NOTED...WE ARE
COMFORTABLE DECREASING POPS TO LOW CHC CAT OVERNIGHT...NOT IN
ELIMINATING THEM...ESP SINCE NAM DOES PAINT QPF OVER ENTIRE FA IN
00Z-12Z FRAME W/FROPA...AND THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM WITH
ITS 06Z AND 12Z RUNS.

SIMILARLY WE WL LINGER AN EARLY FRI AM CHC SE PTNS FA ONLY AS NAM
SHOVES DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IN BEHIND FRONT OVER ALMOST
ENTIRE FA (XCP FAR SE) BY 12Z FRI. THEN ALL MODELS STILL PROG A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER (IE MORE NORMAL) EARLY AUG TEMP SCHEME THRU
THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN TRANSITION TO NE U.S.
TROF/WCNTL U.S. RIDGE PLACES US IN BETWEEN AND THEREFORE WEVE
ADJUSTED/FINE TUNED THE EXTENDED TO CARRY A DAY 6-7 SLGT CHANCE POP
REINTRODUCTION...WHICH ARGUABLY COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS DAY 4 OR 5.

WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BALANCE OUT TO MOS POST FRONTAL VERSUS THEIR
RECENT TRENDING BLO ON HIGHS AND ABV ON LOWS. WE BLENDED THE NEW MEX
W/THE COLLAB PICTURE AND THE OVERALL RESULT ARE TEMPS THRU THE
PACKAGE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM ANY PARTICULAR GUIDANCE NOS PACKAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
436 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-040945-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
436 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BE ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

AFTER A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

MY