Hail in Missouri, August 11, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOWS UP NICELY IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...PROFILERS...AND AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT DATA. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MO...THE WRF DOES BREAK OUT SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS.
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG...AND MOISTENING MID LAYERS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAKE THIS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING.

IT SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
OUR WEST IS STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER GFS MOS. I MAY PUT SOME
PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...BUT
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WHAT THE STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MO MAY DO
TONIGHT. BELIEVE IT MAY MAKE A BIT OF A MOVE TO THE S-SW. HYDROLAPSE
RATES OFF THE PROGGED WRF SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY WORDING. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL
RECENTLY MAY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE FOG.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD THE UPPER
RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WOULDNT BE SHOCKING
TO SEE SOME CONVECTION BEYOND TUESDAY IN THE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON
WHERE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/FRONTS SET UP...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE OFF WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0000 UTC TAFS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER POLK COUNTY
EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SGF COULD SEE A TSTM BETWEEN ABOUT 0030-0130 UTC...BUT SINCE
COVERAGE IS SO LOW ONLY INCLUDED TS IN THE VC FOR NOW. ANY ISOLD TS
WILL END BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINFALL COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ONLY TOOK VIS DOWN TO MVFR IN TAFS FOR
NOW...HOWEVER POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF IFR VIS
BETWEEN 1100-1300 UTC AT BOTH TERMINALS AND 0600 UTC TAFS MAY NEED
TO LOWER VIS ANOTHER CATEGORY. LIGHT FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SAT WITH ONLY
FEW-SCT DECK OF CUMULUS WITH BASES RISING TO OVER 5000FT AGL DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
750 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
750 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50
  MPH WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
  RAINFALL.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN
  OSCEOLA TO ROLLA LINE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION:

  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
  THIS EVENING INTERACTED WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS
  OF 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

  THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE MID EVENING
  HOURS AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
749 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STOCKTON                37.70N 93.80W
08/11/2006                   CEDAR              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERY STRONG WINDS WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE LIMBS
            DOWN AND A FEW SMALLER TREES DOWNED IN TOWN.

&&

IZZI