Flash Flood in Mississippi, May 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SWD TO COVER SEVERE
STORMS OCCURRING OVER SE MS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CONVECTION IS
DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE AREA. SE MS STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG AN OUTFLOW TYPE BOUNDARY THAT HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST HURRAH THIS EVENING FOR
OUR AREA. SATELLITE PIX SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING QUICKLY UPSTREAM
TX/OK/NW AR SO WILL BEGIN MONITOR OF NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ARKLAMISS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOTS OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS THIS AFTERNOON. S/W MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS
ACTIVATED THE WARM FRONT AND STORMS HAVE FIRE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASCENT SHOWS UP WELL ON
RADAR AND VIS SAT IMAGERY AS ALL CONVECTION IS FOCUSED GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. TIME TRENDS ON THIS JUST ABOUT GETS IT OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA BY 6 PM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIKELY HOOD OF THE
ACTIVITY BEGIN STILL JUST IN THE CWA BY 6 PM...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT POPS FOR THE EAST THROUGH 01-02Z THEN DRY THINGS UP. INSTABILITY
STILL REMAINS GOOD AND ISO SVR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 6PM.

OVERNIGHT...THINGS BECOME MUCH MORE COMPLICATED AS WE FOCUS ON THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND THE APPROACHING MORE POTENT SYSTEM THE
EVENING WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY SOME CU LINGERING AROUND. THE ACTION
WILL LIKELY GET GOING OUT TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND
STEADILY EVOLVE. IM EXPECTING THINGS TO STAY OUT OF THE CWA MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (COLD
POOL) WILL GET GOING AND SPREAD OUR WAY AND ENTER THE DELTA AROUND
10-12Z. HOW THIS EVOLVES DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING WILL HAVE HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW SVR THE WX GET ON WED. IF FEEL NO MATTER
WHAT...JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN AND STORMS...ITS JUST
ABOUT IF/AND HOW BAD THE SVR WX WILL BE. IN SHORT...THE MAIN FAILURE
MODE FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING OUTFLOW AND ITS
STABILIZING EFFECTS. IF THIS FEATURE DOESNT MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OR
DOESNT MAKE REAL FAR INTO THE CWA...THEN SFC HEATING WILL BE HIGH
AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE REAL HIGH AT THIS TIME...I THINK
THE NW (DELTA) WILL BE EFFECTED BY SOME BOUNDARY AND THERE SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED. ODDS ARE AREAS ALONG AND SE OF THE TRACE
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DUE TO FACT THAT THEY HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO NOT BE EFFECTED BY ANY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE (29-31 VERTICAL TOTALS)...2500-3500
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 40-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. ALL THIS SPELLS SVR
STORMS. THE VERY MOIST SFC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA WITH 70-73 SFC DEWPTS BEHIND THE CURRENT
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALL BE IN PLACE AS THE STRONG FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO ALL THIS...I HAVE HIT POPS HARD ON WED.
THE DELTA WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIP EARLY...POSSIBLY GET A BREAK AND
THEN SEE MORE WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SAME GOES
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE STRONG SVR ACTIVITY WILL BE FIRST AND
THEN POSSIBLE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT WITH THE FROPA.

WILL BASICALLY FOLLOW GUIDANCE FOR POPS WED NIGHT EXCEPT FOR GOING
HIGHER IN THE SE WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AREA WIDE. SUMMER IS NOT HERE YET   /CME/

LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THERE WILL BE SOME QUICK DRYING BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER GOES QUICKLY DOWN TO LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. BY THIS
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND HERE IS WHERE WE COME INTO A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
AS TO THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW.  THE 06 ZGFS/DGEX BRINGS IT DOWN
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN
KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE REGION. FORTUNATELY ON THE 12Z RUN THE GFS KEPT IT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ROTATING CLOSED LOW AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SO
WILL GO WITH THIS SOLUTION.

THE GFS BRINGS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A REX BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL KEEP
GOOD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVES IN THIS REGIME
CREATES GREATER UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY AS THESE SETUPS CAN LEAD TO SEWD-MOVING HAILSTORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
KEEP LOW TO SCATTERED POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  AS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY SHOULD GET ENOUGH
ACTIVITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE POPS AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY.

NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE IN 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S ON
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUT TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR NIGHTLY LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 75 TO 80
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...80 TO 85 SATURDAY...THEN COOLING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80. KEPT CLOSE TO 00Z MEX. /17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: CME
LONG TERM: 17
03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
102102-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
402 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 7 PM FOR
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO NEWTON LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.

AFTER 7 PM...THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE A QUIET PERIOD AS STORMS
EXIT TO THE EAST AND NEW STORMS DEVELOP OUT TO OUR WEST. IT WILL
BE THAT ACTIVITY THAT WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...I EXPECT A
WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS TO ENTER THE DELTA EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THIS LINE MAY HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO EXIST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN
AND CLASHES WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND IF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HAIL             ROSEDALE                33.85N 91.03W
05/09/2006  M0.88 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED TO BOLIVAR EOC BY ROSEDALE FIRE
            DEPT.

&&

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     HAIL             2 N CLEVELAND           33.77N 90.73W
05/10/2006  E1.00 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ON
            TOWNSHIP ROAD.

&&

LM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
103 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             3 S MOUND BAYOU         33.84N 90.73W
05/10/2006  M1.00 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MOUND
            BAYOU AND MERIGOLD.

&&

LM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 AM     HAIL             2 N ROSEDALE            33.88N 91.03W
05/10/2006  M0.88 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 1 BY
            SHERIFFS DEPUTY

0105 AM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
05/10/2006  M0.75 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR BISHOP AND HIGHWAY 8 BY
            STORM SPOTTER

0110 AM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
05/10/2006  M1.00 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            QUARTER HAIL REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPUTY ON SMITH ROAD
            NEAR THE ZUMBRO PLANTATION.

&&

LM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
133 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 AM     HAIL             2 N ROSEDALE            33.88N 91.03W
05/10/2006  M0.88 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 1 BY
            SHERIFFS DEPUTY

0105 AM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
05/10/2006  M0.75 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR BISHOP AND HIGHWAY 8 BY
            STORM SPOTTER

&&

LM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
136 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             RULEVILLE               33.72N 90.55W
05/10/2006  M0.75 INCH       SUNFLOWER          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE

0130 AM     HAIL             DREW                    33.81N 90.53W
05/10/2006  E0.75 INCH       SUNFLOWER          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE

&&

LM