Damaging Wind in Mississippi, March 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...SVR WX POTENTIAL IS PEAKING AS I WRITE AND WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 5-7 PM. DECENT AREA OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
STILL BE ONGOING JUST E OF I-55 WITH SCT TYPE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WILL GO WITH 100 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND USE GUIDANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIP TREND WILL BE REVISITED PRIOR TO 6 PM AND POPS
WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7-9 PM AS THE DRY PUNCH
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. CWA WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 8-11PM WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
NOT BE FROM ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF TUE AND BRING WITH A STRATUS DECK.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW AND WEST.
I WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADV DUE TO FACT THAT IS WILL BE A
BOARDER LINE EVENT AND AS THE STRATUS MOVES...WINDS MAKING IT TO
THAT CRITERIA WILL HARD TO DUE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS
WELL...BASICALLY HOLDING IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NW TO NEAR 70 IN
THE SE.

AS FOR THE WATCHES THAT ARE IN EFFECT...DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN
SHIFTING OUT OF THE FFA AREA...I WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FFA.
AS FOR THE TORNADO WATCHES. THE NEW ONE IS FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE
CWA FROM BUDE TO MERIDIAN. THE TORN RISK IS ONLY FOR THE REGION FROM
MARION CO TO JONES CO. COUNTIES NORTH OF THAT LINE ARE IN THE
WATCH...BUT IT IS ONLY FOR ELEVATED HAIL POTENTIAL. I AM IN THE
PROCESS OF EVALUATING THE 1ST TOR WATCH AND WILL LIKELY CANCEL
SEVERAL COUNTIES...IF NOT THE ENTIRE WATCH...SHORTLY.

/CME/

LONGER TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

ANOTHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO START HEADING OUR WAY
WEDNESDAY...BUT FORTUNATELY IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS LATTER FACT WILL SPARE US FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STORMS...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL AREAS CAN BE
CONFIDENT ON REMAINING ENTIRELY DRY. THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY MAY PARK IN THE GULF IN CLOSE ENOUGH VICINITY TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP TO THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND FORCES AT LEAST VIRGA OUT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS. AFTER THURSDAY ITS HARD TO SEE ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AT ALL IN THE REGION UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS
AROUND AS MINOR WAVES COME THROUGH IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN.

STILL THINKING THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR A FREEZE THIS WEEK
(AFTER TUESDAY) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...I CONSIDERED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL RELATIVELY LATE IN THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR
NIGHT WHERE PROLONGED TEMPERATURES TO (OR BELOW) 32 DEGREES
WARRANT TALK OF A KILLING FREEZE. PROBLEM REMAINS CLOUD COVER AND
WIND ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS.
ULTIMATELY ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE TO OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS...BUT I HESITATE TO PICK THE NIGHT RIGHT NOW.

OTHERWISE...REMAINED CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE ON LONG TERM TEMPERATURES
AS ENSEMBLES STILL POINT TO READINGS REMAINING 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 30S. JUGGLING THE
VARIOUS EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELDS THE FEELING THAT A WARM UP
IS COMING BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       49  60  35  55 /  68   0   1   0
MERIDIAN      51  66  36  60 / 100   0   2   0
VICKSBURG     46  61  36  57 /  51   0   1   0
HATTIESBURG   54  72  42  62 / 100   0   1   2
NATCHEZ       46  65  38  58 /  48   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    45  55  32  54 /  58   5   2   0
GREENWOOD     45  55  32  55 /  73   6   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: CME
LONG TERM: BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1047 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211237-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1047 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN
LINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FARTHER
NORTHWEST WILL HAVE A RISK HAIL...WITH MUCH SMALLER CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IS
CAUSING A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
MOIST AIR IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TO THE SOUTH OF A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR...
INSTABILITY...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES IN THE
GREATER RISK AREA. THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF A
DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...FLOODING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GREATER
DETAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO NEAR FREEZING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LAZ016-023>025-MSZ047-201830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1144 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WINNSBORO AND
   WISNER TO TALLULAH...

AT 1145 AM...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM WINNSBORO TO WISNER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE TALLULAH TO SOMERSET TO WATERPROOF AREAS THROUGH 1
PM AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR TENSAS
PARISH.MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     HAIL             8 S VICKSBURG           32.21N 90.87W
03/20/2006  E0.25 INCH       WARREN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA HAIL REPORTED 8 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG ON U.S. 61

1248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
03/20/2006                   WARREN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE LIMBS GREATER THAN 8 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN
            ON HALLS FERRY ROAD

1248 PM     FLOOD            VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
03/20/2006                   WARREN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED ON HALLS FERRY ROAD

&&

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             HEBRON                  31.71N 89.37W
03/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             3 E STRINGER            31.87N 89.21W
03/20/2006  M0.50 INCH       JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COLLINS                 31.64N 89.56W
03/20/2006                   COVINGTON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPOTED NEAR COLLINS.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     12 NW LAUREL            31.82N 89.29W
03/20/2006                   JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF SERVICE ROAD
            AND SPRINGHILL ROAD. TREES ALSO REPORTED DOWN.

&&

19