Hail in Mississippi, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
NO NEED FOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY
CLIMBED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM 3-4MB ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE LI VALUES WERE
FROM 6-7C FROM JAN TO GLH...IN THE AREA WHERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THE BEST MOISTURE WAS ALSO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. SUPERCELLS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE DELTA...WHERE THEY WERE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INITIALLY. TRAINING STORMS MAY BRING THE FLASH FLOOD
PROBLEMS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ALSO. THE CAP CONTINUES TO ERODE...SO THE
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST SOUNDING
SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES...A 45KT LLJ AND AT LEAST 45KTS OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A CAP OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL 3Z.
SO EXPECTING THE AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY 6PM AND INTO THE EASTERN ZONES AROUND 8-9 PM. WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THAN EXPECTED...NOT SURE ACTIVITY WILL END
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HELD STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE EAST.
BASICALLY THE FORECAST HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SO NEED FOR ADJUSTMENTS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING LONG TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AWAY FROM THE FIRING
LINES OF UPPER JET ENERGY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THAT SAID...A FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE TOP END OF AN
UPPER RIDGE PROTECTING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE TRYING TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
ARKLATEX...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME CONVECTION GOING (ESPECIALLY UP
NORTH). THE UPPER RIDGE MAY REMAIN A LITTLE DIRTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE...AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE LOW AND SPORADIC POPS THE 00Z MEX
ADVERTISED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY (TO SOMETIMES MOSTLY
CLEAR) SKIES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TEND A HAIR BELOW NORMAL THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BUT EXPECT A MODERATION UP TO
NORMAL LEVELS (HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWS NEAR 60) DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD. REMAINED ALMOST RIGHT WITH 00Z MEX FOR ALL TEMPS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  70  43  71 /  85   7   0   0
MERIDIAN      63  74  41  74 / 100  19   0   0
VICKSBURG     61  69  44  71 /  60   5   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  75  44  75 /  60  13   0   0
NATCHEZ       61  70  44  71 /  48   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  65  40  68 /  71   5   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  65  40  70 /  85   9   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

07/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
082034-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
334 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAVE SET THE STAGE
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...HOWEVER LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM RAYVILLE
LOUISIANA...TO YAZOO CITY TO GOLDEN TRIANGLE ARE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS SETTLED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK
EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BASEBALL OR LARGER
HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM BARRELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL SHIFT TO AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IN ADDITION TO
LONG TRACK TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
A CONCERN.

LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS SWINGS THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...MORE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

EVERYONE IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
WEATHER SITUATION.

...FLOODING...
THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS FLOW INTO THE
REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS
MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...HOWEVER STORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS IS MORE
LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILMOT                  33.06N 91.57W
04/07/2006                   ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ON ASHLEY 95 NEAR WILMOT.

0434 PM     HAIL             1 W ITTA BENA           33.50N 90.34W
04/07/2006  E0.25 INCH       LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED JUST WEST OF ITTA BENA.

0442 PM     HAIL             EUDORA                  33.12N 91.26W
04/07/2006  E1.00 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN EUDORA.

0446 PM     TORNADO          2 NW MORGAN CITY        33.40N 90.37W
04/07/2006                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR MORGAN CITY. SEVERAL
            TRAINED SPOTTERS WATCHING TORNADO ON THE GROUND.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          5 NE INVERNESS          33.41N 90.53W
04/07/2006                   SUNFLOWER          MS   OTHER FEDERAL

            COLUMBUS AIR FORCE BASE HELICOPTER PILOT REPORTED A
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTHEAST OF INVERNESS.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
04/07/2006  E1.00 INCH       LEFLORE            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN GREENWOOD REPORTED BY GREENWOOD
            POLICE DEPARTMENT.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
510 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             2 S GREENVILLE          33.36N 91.05W
04/07/2006  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF GREENVILLE.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TORNADO          GREENVILLE              33.39N 91.05W
04/07/2006                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND IN GREENVILLE. NO
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE WERE
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N CARROLLTON          33.52N 89.92W
04/07/2006                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED JUST NORTH OF CARROLLTON.

&&

19